River Flood Advisory 1, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
321 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2008

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

CONVECTION IS REALLY SUPPRESSED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.  THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND LAST NIGHTS SYSTEM
AND A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TODAY.  ALSO...MOISTURE IS
THINNING A LITTLE ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
THERE WAS A STORM NEAR STONEWALL EARLIER THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN
SEVERE...SOME ROTATION AND A NOTCH WAS EVIDENT FOR A WHILE...BUT
THAT STORM HAS SINCE WENT WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER TO CAUSE HAVOC IN
NEW MEXICO.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE PRETTY SUBDUED TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS.  THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE/POSSIBLE BOUNDARY
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE PICTURES CROSSING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT THIS HOUR.  THIS FEATURE MAY KICK OFF SOME
ACTIVITY OVER OUR EASTERN PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH.  BUT...ALL IN ALL...I THINK ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER
ISOLATED THIS EVENING...AND THEN WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET.

TOMORROW...CONCERN SHIFTS TO THE DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL.  THE NAM12
IS INSISTENT ON BREAKING OUT LOTS OF HIGH BASED/MID LEVEL CONVECTION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...FROM THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  THE
GFS40...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.  SO...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH CONVECTION
TO EXPECT.  IN ANY EVENT...THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...WHICH MEANS SURFACE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...CERTAINLY
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DRY LIGHTNING.  FOR NOW...PER COORDINATION WITH
THE GRAND JUNCTION AND BOULDER FORECAST OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR DRY LIGHTNING.  THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE DRY LIGHTNING COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE TOO MINIMAL. TUNE
IN FOR THE UPDATED FORECAST TOMORROW MORNING IN CASE THOUGHTS ON
THIS CHANGE.

OTHERWISE...DEFINITELY A WARMER AND DRIER DAY ALL AREAS...WITH AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY THE PALMER
AND RATON RIDGES.

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

SUNDAY NIGHT...NAM AND GFS MODELS PAINT RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT DISAGREE
SOMEWHAT ON HOW TO HANDLE INTERACTION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS. NAM BREAKS OUT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUN AFTN
WHICH LASTS THROUGH THE EVE...WHILE GFS IS MUCH MORE TIGHT IN
COVERAGE. MAIN CONCERN IS DRY LIGHTNING DUE TO VERY DRY LOWER
LEVELS...BUT FEEL THAT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
HOISTING ANY SORT OF FIREWX HIGHLIGHT. THEREFORE...IN COORDINATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND SHORT TERM FORECASTER...WILL HOLD OFF
FOR SUN EVE AND WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO NEXT SHIFT.

MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY...BUT MODELS HINT AT A
WEAK SFC FRONT DROPPING DOWN THE E PLAINS LATE MORNING ON MONDAY.
COUPLED WITH RESIDENT LLVL MOISTURE AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE RIDGE...FEEL THAT MONDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE
HIGHER PEAKS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS SINCE LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SAYS THE SAME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUILDS THEN SCATTERED POPS MAY BE WARRANTED.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER
THE DESERT SW. THIS WILL KEEP NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE WITH
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES CRESTING THE RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING THAT THE DIURNAL SUMMER PATTERN SETS UP
WITH A DAILY SHOT OF AFTN AND EVE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FEEDING OFF
THE LLVL MOISTURE LURKING ACROSS THE E PLAINS. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST GRIDS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED AFTERNOON EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONCERNS OF LOW CIGS...ERRATIC WINDS...AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THOSE. WIND GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE QUITE A BIT HIGHER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

50/27

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
709 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     HAIL             1 NW COLORADO CITY      37.95N 104.86W
06/21/2008  M0.88 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MN