Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Pueblo, CO

000 
WGUS85 KPUB 051921
FLSPUB

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
121 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2008

COC003-023-027-043-055-071-101-109-052130-
/O.CON.KPUB.FA.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-080805T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HUERFANO CO-LAS ANIMAS CO-COSTILLA CO-CUSTER CO-FREMONT CO-ALAMOSA 
CO-PUEBLO CO-SAGUACHE CO-
121 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2008

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RUNOFF AND
PONDING OF WATER REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MDT FOR EASTERN
SAGUACHE...WEST CENTRAL PUEBLO...NORTHEASTERN ALAMOSA...SOUTHWESTERN
FREMONT...CUSTER...EASTERN COSTILLA...SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS AND
HUERFANO COUNTIES...

AT 118 PM MDT...THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS FALLING OVER THE LA VETA PASS 
REGION. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN MAY HAVE 
FALLEN OVER THIS REGION BETWEEN 1215 PM AND 115 PM. PEOPLE TRAVELING 
ACROSS LA VETA PASS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE DEBRIS ON THE ROAD. 
AS OF 120 PM...THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MATO 
VEGA BURN SCAR. IF THIS HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVER THE BURN SCAR...THEN 
THE PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING WILL RISE RAPIDLY. 

JUST A SMALL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ON A BURN SCAR CAN LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING. WATER THAT IS NORMALLY ABSORBED BY VEGETATION...RUNS OFF
ALMOST INSTANTLY. THIS CAUSES CREEKS AND DRAINAGE AREAS TO FLOOD AT A
MUCH FASTER RATE THAN NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY...THE SOILS IN A BURN SCAR
BECOME UNSTABLE WHEN IT RAINS...RESULTING IN MUD FLOWS AND FALLING
ROCK. ROADWAYS CAN BE WASHED OUT BY THE FORCE OF THE RUSHING WATER.

LAT...LON 3698 10557 3743 10538 3844 10613 3824 10505
      3747 10467 3700 10439

$$

000 
WGUS85 KPUB 051953
FLSPUB

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
153 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2008

COC003-023-027-043-055-071-101-109-052130-
/O.CON.KPUB.FA.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-080805T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HUERFANO CO-LAS ANIMAS CO-COSTILLA CO-CUSTER CO-FREMONT CO-ALAMOSA 
CO-PUEBLO CO-SAGUACHE CO-
153 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2008

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RUNOFF AND
PONDING OF WATER REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MDT FOR EASTERN
SAGUACHE...WEST CENTRAL PUEBLO...NORTHEASTERN ALAMOSA...SOUTHWESTERN
FREMONT...CUSTER...EASTERN COSTILLA...SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS AND
HUERFANO COUNTIES...

AT 150 PM MDT...RADAR INDICATED THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS FALLING ACROSS 
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS FROM THE 
LA VETA PASS REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO BORDER. 
RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN. PEOPLE 
DRIVING ON HIGHWAY 160 ACROSS LA VETA PASS AND HIGHWAY 12 SHOULD BE 
ALERT FOR DEBRIS ON THE ROADWAY. AS OF 150 PM...NO HEAVY RAIN HAS 
FALLEN ON ANY OF THE LOCAL BURN SCARS...BUT IF HEAVY RAIN DOES MOVE 
ONTO A BURN SCAR...THEN THE PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING WILL 
DRAMATICALLY INCREASE. 

JUST A SMALL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ON A BURN SCAR CAN LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING. WATER THAT IS NORMALLY ABSORBED BY VEGETATION...RUNS OFF
ALMOST INSTANTLY. THIS CAUSES CREEKS AND DRAINAGE AREAS TO FLOOD AT A
MUCH FASTER RATE THAN NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY...THE SOILS IN A BURN SCAR
BECOME UNSTABLE WHEN IT RAINS...RESULTING IN MUD FLOWS AND FALLING
ROCK. ROADWAYS CAN BE WASHED OUT BY THE FORCE OF THE RUSHING WATER.

LAT...LON 3698 10557 3743 10538 3844 10613 3824 10505
      3747 10467 3700 10439

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
455 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2008

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

SHORT TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH STRONGER ZONAL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES ATTM. WATER VAPOR ALSO INDICATING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE UNDER THE RIDGE WITH
00Z NCEP CHARTS INDICATING BETWEEN PWATS BETWEEN .75 AND 1 INCH
ACROSS THE STATE ATTM. AT THE SFC...LATEST MSAS AND OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING A WEAK LOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF SPD WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY AND BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS ATTM. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IN 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS ATTM. REGIONAL
RADARS AND SATELLITE INDICATING SOME WAA CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TSRA
ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS ATTM.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH
THE MOISTURE PLUME AND MINOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN PLACE...SHOULD
SEE THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE EVENING. LATEST
MODELS ARE PROJECTING SFC BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MOIST CONVECTION FIRING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT AS
BOUNDARY IS BACKED UP ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE PWATS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS WHERE TRAINING COULD BE AN ISSUE WITH THE DEVELOPING
EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS ANY
POSSIBLE FLOODING LOOKS TO BE TOO LOCALIZED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS ATTM.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION...WITH THE LATEST NAM
KEEPING UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW PTS WITH CAPES BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG BOUNDARY. WITH THE DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GENERALLY STAYED CLOSER TO THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. -MW

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)

UPPER HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED NEAR
THE 4 CORNERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOIST PLUME REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH FAIRLY HEALTHLY UPPER WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY WED EVENING.
SHOULD THUS SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUANS. POSITION OF THE OLD SURFACE FRONT
OVER THE EAST PROBLEMATIC...AS LATEST MODEL DATA KEEPS THE BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE WED MORNING...THEN PUSHES IT SOUTH TO
THE NM BORDER BY EVENING. 06Z RUNS OF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
GENERATE MASSIVE QPF ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WED EVENING...AS
60-65F DEWPOINT AIR PUSHES WESTWARD AND WEAK N-NE STEERING FLOW
KEEPS STORMS PINNED TO THE MOUNTAINS. NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS
YET...AS 00Z RUNS WERE MUCH DRIER...KEEPING THE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. DOES BEAR WATCHING AS SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION. MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES
SLIGHTLY ON THU...AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SPREADS OVER THE PLAINS AS
UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES. BEST PRECIP CHANCES BY THU EVENING MAY BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN NM WHERE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS UP...BUT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING PLENTIFUL...TOUGH TO RULE OUT AT
LEAST SCATTERED TSRA MOST AREAS. COULD BE THE SAME STORY FOR
FRIDAY...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SHUNTED JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA. GIVEN THIS IS A RATHER BIG CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FCSTS...WONT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH ANY DRYING TREND...THOUGH WILL
NUDGE MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY BOTH DAYS. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS REGARDING UPPER HIGH POSITION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GFS IN GENERAL KEEPING
MORE RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST THAN THE EUROPEAN. BOTH MODELS HINT
AT A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY...WITH A RENEWED SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EAST
LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE...WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF TSRA EVERY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE NEAR
STORMS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH MVFR AND PATCHY IFR STRATUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. -MW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

23/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
656 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2008

COZ058>089-093>099-061300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
656 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. STORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT PLAINS. OTHER THREATS FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND  LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH.
SMALL HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. ANY STORMS THAT FORM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL AGAIN BE SLOW MOVING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS. OTHER THREATS FROM STORMS
WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 40 MPH. SMALL HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

23/10