Wind Advisory 3, NWS Phoenix, AZ

000 
WWUS75 KPSR 070115
NPWPSR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
615 PM MST SUN JAN 6 2008


CAZ030>033-070215-
/O.EXP.KPSR.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-080107T0100Z/
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTTONWOOD VISITOR CENTER...
LOST HORSE-KEYS VIEW JTNP...BLYTHE...CHIRIACO SUMMIT...
DESERT CENTER...EAGLE MTN...MIDLAND...BRAWLEY...CALEXICO...
EL CENTRO...GLAMIS...IMPERIAL...AND THE SALTON SEA
515 PM PST SUN JAN 6 2008

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS EVENING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST SAT JAN 5 2008

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AT TIMES MAINLY TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE SNOW
LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR 45 HUNDRED FEET. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER UPSLOPE AND
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. IT WILL BECOME COOLER AND DRIER BY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THIS
COMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A MASSIVE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. THIS EVENING (03Z).  AT ITS FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT...
THE COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE RICH FRONTAL BAND (WHICH MOVED THROUGH
SAN DIEGO VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING)...WAS LOCATED DIAGONALLY
ACROSS AZ (GENERALLY FROM PAYSON TO JUST EAST OF YUMA AT 03Z). THIS
FRONTAL BAND WILL STALL SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...BEING HELD UP BY TWO
APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE WESTERN
REGION TROF...AND EXPECTED IN ARIZONA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MOISTURE RICH FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WILL
GENERALLY STRADDLE SOUTH CENTRAL AZ THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
(FROM PHOENIX NORTH AND EAST)...ORIENTATED SUCH THAT PERSISTENTLY
STRONG 15 TO 35 KT 850/700 MB WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WILL
PROMOTE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES OVER THE LOWER DESERTS
(GREATER PHOENIX AREA)...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE RAINFALL OVER THE
COMPLEX TERRAIN (CAVE CREEK...FOUNTAIN HILLS...THE SUPERSTITIONS...
AND ALL OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY).

RAINFALL HOWEVER WILL BE ENHANCE SOMEWHAT TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES (PARTICULARLY THE UPSLOPE AREAS)...
WITH THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.  THEREFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT...AS THE MASSIVE PACIFIC TROF SHIFTS FURTHER
EAST...WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WILL BE ABOVE 6500 FT...THEN FALLING TO 5000 FEET
BY MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE MOISTURE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...VERY
HIGH LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES...NOT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AT 5000 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT (DUE TO WET AND SETTLING SNOW)...HOWEVER 2
TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 5400 FEET WHERE VERY
FEW RESIDENTS LIVE IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK VERY GOOD.  PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
INCLUDING PRECIP AMOUNTS STILL APPLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 335 PM MST SAT...
RAINFALL STORM TOTALS OVER THE LOWER SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS COULD
EASILY EXCEED ONE HALF INCH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AMOUNTS
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY OR FAR NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY. SOME LOCATIONS THERE COULD
EVEN EXCEED 2 INCHES.

THE SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE 6 THOUSAND FEET
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN THE SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND
5 THOUSAND FEET BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND 4 THOUSAND OR 45 HUNDRED
FEET LATE MONDAY MORNING. THUS...THE MAIN COOLING WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A SNOW ADVISORY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ZONE
24 SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUS...A WIND ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IT WILL BECOME COOLER AND DRIER BY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC BUILDS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND EXTENDS OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
PACIFIC STORMS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
JANUARY 6 0345 UTC (JANUARY 5 2045 MST)

SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND SURROUNDING
AIRPORTS...ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS AS A VIGOROUS PACIFIC STORM MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH
MONDAY.

FOR KPHX/KIWA AND VALLEY AIRFIELDS...CEILINGS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN
4-6 KFT AGL WITH SCATTERED RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  CEILINGS
MAY DROP TO IFR THRESHOLDS IN PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. LIGHT
EAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SUN...BECOMING
WESTERLY AFTER 21Z SUN.

FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING
KYUM/KBLH/KIPL AIRPORTS...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN HAS DIMINISHED.
HOWEVER A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 5 AND 8 THSD AGL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...BECOMING GUSTY FROM
THE WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 18Z SUN.

AVIATION DISCUSSION IS NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
JANUARY 5 2215 GMT (JANUARY 5 1515 MST)

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. EXPECT BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 35 TO 45 MPH. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH WARMING IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER RH
VALUES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

SHORT TERM...VASQUEZ/ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...P ROGERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
624 AM MST SAT JAN 5 2008

AZZ021>023-028-060100-
WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-
GREATER PHOENIX AREA-NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
624 AM MST SAT JAN 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT...CAUSING AREAS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP.
FOR THE MOST PART RAIN WILL NOT BE HEAVY...WITH ACCUMULATIONS WELL
BELOW ONE HALF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...SUCH AS
WICKENBURG...CAREFREE AND CAVE CREEK. THE HEAVIER RAIN COULD CAUSE
SOME FLOODING OF STREAMS...WASHES...ROADS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SECOND...STRONGER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN WITH THE
FIRST SYSTEM...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH LIKELY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. LOCAL FLOODING OF
STREAMS...WASHES...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY...FOR DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
GRADUAL WARMING. NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ024-060100-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
624 AM MST SAT JAN 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE FIRST OF TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...LEADING TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. SOME FLOODING OF
STREAMS...WASHES...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SECOND AND MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HEAVIER
THAN WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OF STREAMS...WASHES...ROADS AND
LOW LYING AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES IN...AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET BY
MONDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY...FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ030-060100-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-
524 AM PST SAT JAN 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK
TODAY...UNTIL 6 PM PST. SEE PRODUCT PHXNPWPSR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
SOME BLOWING DUST AND SAND IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

BRECKENRIDGE