Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
330 PM MST FRI AUG 8 2008

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT OF STORMS OUT
THERE FOR A FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LACK OF A GOOD SYNOPTIC OR MESO-SCALE TRIGGER...ALONG WITH THE FACT
THE AIRMASS WAS FAIRLY DECENTLY WORKED OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS
HELPED TO MAKE TODAY A DOWN DAY CONVECTIVELY ACROSS THE PHX CWA.
LATEST SATELLITE PIX AND RADAR LOOPS ARE SHOWING NARY A STORM OVER
THE CWA AT PRESS TIME AS A RESULT. THIS IS NOT TO SAY WE WILL NOT
HAVE SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY DEVELOP OUT OF RESPECT OF UNSTABLE THERMO-
DYNAMIC PROFILES IN SOUNDINGS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE. ALSO...
MUCH LESS ACTIVITY TO THE SE AND NE OF THE SCNTRL AZ DESERTS WILL
LIMIT THE NUMBER OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND COLLISIONS...THEREBY
PREVENTING LARGE-SCALE DESERT REDEVELOPMENT. HAVE TAKEN OUT MENTION
OF PRECIP OVER PHX AREA TONIGHT...AND LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN
ELSEWHERE.

BY TOMORROW...WE SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS...IMPROVED INSOLATION...MORE
ACTIVITY IN SE AZ WITH A POTENTIAL INVERTED TROUGH HEADING OUR WAY
FROM W TX. THIS COULD GIVE US A SLIGHT UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SCNTRL AZ. CONTINUED
SLOW DRYING IN THE COLUMN OUT W OF THE CO RIVER SHOULD CUT OFF
CONVECTION OUT THERE ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...NOT MUCH TO HANG OUR HATS ON
REGARDING PREDICTING UP/DOWN DAYS WITH TSTMS. SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH
MOISTURE ACROSS AZ PORTION OF CWA...PER MODELS...TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS GOING DURING THIS TIME. STORMS WILL BE KEPT OUT OF
THE FORECAST IN SE CA DUE TO DRIER AMS OUT THERE. LOOK FOR NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CWA-WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS BURNING OFF ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS...WHILE
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS IN LA PAZ COUNTY. TODAY SHOULD BE
MUCH QUIETER FOR THE LOWER DESERTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED/STABILIZED...BUT STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE DESERT FLOOR. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
PHOENIX AREA...WHICH WILL POSE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY TO THE LOWER DESERTS...PERHAPS FROM THE
NORTH OR NORTHEAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH TYPICAL WIND PATTERNS TAKING HOLD BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING THE MODEST MONSOON FORECAST GOING
AS THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH CLEAR MODEL TRENDS TO INDICATE A BREAK IN
THE MONSOON NOR A MAJOR UPSWING. ACCORDINGLY...NO SIGNIFICANT TRENDS
FORECASTED FOR TEMPS...HUMIDITIES...AND WINDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...ESTLE
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
534 AM MST FRI AUG 8 2008

AZZ022-023-027-028-091245-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
534 AM MST FRI AUG 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST
THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRONG POSSIBLY DAMAGING MICRO-BURST
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO POTENTIAL FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
EACH DAY. STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALWAYS POSSIBILITIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

AZZ020-025-CAZ030>033-091245-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
534 AM MST FRI AUG 8 2008 /534 AM PDT FRI AUG 8 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRONG POSSIBLY DAMAGING
MICRO-BURST WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

AZZ024-091245-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
534 AM MST FRI AUG 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE
LOCAL FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

AZZ021-026-091245-
WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
534 AM MST FRI AUG 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
AND WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS INCLUDE STRONG POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1145 AM MST FRI AUG 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUCKEYE                 33.38N 112.60W
08/07/2008                   MARICOPA           AZ   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWER OUTAGES REPORTED DUE TO DOWNED POWER
            LINES...APPROXIMATELY 70 TOTAL IN BUCKEYE AREA.

0817 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S PHOENIX             33.50N 112.07W
08/07/2008                   MARICOPA           AZ   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWER OUTAGE DUE TO DOWNED POWER POLES IN CENTRAL AND
            NORTH-CENTRAL PHOENIX.

&&

ROGERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1145 AM MST FRI AUG 8 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUCKEYE                 33.38N 112.60W
08/07/2008                   MARICOPA           AZ   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWER OUTAGES REPORTED DUE TO DOWNED POWER
            LINES. APPROXIMATELY 70 POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN.

0817 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S PHOENIX             33.50N 112.07W
08/07/2008                   MARICOPA           AZ   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWER OUTAGE DUE TO DOWNED POWER POLES IN CENTRAL AND
            NORTH-CENTRAL PHOENIX.

&&

ROGERS/DG