Red Flag Warning 36, NWS Phoenix, AZ

000 
WWUS85 KPSR 122143
RFWPSR

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
243 PM MST MON MAY 12 2008

AZZ131-CAZ231-131300-
/O.NEW.KPSR.FW.W.0037.080513T1700Z-080514T0000Z/
/O.CON.KPSR.FW.W.0036.080512T2200Z-080513T0400Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 131                                    
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-
CALIFORNIA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 231                                 
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
243 PM MST MON MAY 12 2008 /243 PM PDT MON MAY 12 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST /9 PM PDT/
THIS EVENING FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY DUE TO STRONG WINDS
...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MST /10 AM PDT/ TO 5 PM MST
/5 PM PDT/ TUESDAY FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY DUE TO STRONG
NORTH WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10
AM MST /10 AM PDT/ TO 5 PM MST /5 PM PDT/ TUESDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST /9 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING.

STRONG SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE THIS EVENING AS HUMIDITIES INCREASE AND
WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND DRY AIR EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN
THE LATE MORNING HOURS...WHEN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT. IN ADDITION...SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TUESDAY EVENING AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

AZZ132-131300-
/O.NEW.KPSR.FW.W.0037.080513T1700Z-080514T0000Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 132                                    
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
243 PM MST MON MAY 12 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR LA
PAZ AND YUMA COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DUE TO STRONG NORTH
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR LA PAZ AND YUMA COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY. THIS RED FLAG WARNING DOES NOT 
INCLUDE EITHER MARICOPA OR PINAL COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND DRY AIR EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGIN IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...WHEN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. IN
ADDITION...SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY
EVENING AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.


PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

CAZ232-130400-
/O.CON.KPSR.FW.W.0036.080512T2200Z-080513T0400Z/
CALIFORNIA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 232                                 
IMPERIAL COUNTY AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY-
243 PM PDT MON MAY 12 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST /9 PM PDT/
THIS EVENING FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY DUE TO STRONG WINDS
...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
IMPERIAL AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

STRONG SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE THIS EVENING AS HUMIDITIES INCREASE AND
WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
400 AM MST MON MAY 12 2008

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY AND INTO ARIZONA TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
WINDY WEATHER TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
WEATHER DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST 100 DEGREE
WEATHER OF THE YEAR IS EXPECTED IN MANY DESERT LOCATIONS INCLUDING
PHOENIX BY THE END OF THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY...WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. PREFRONTAL
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY/WINDY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL WRF INDICATES THAT THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE CHANNELED THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CA
AND INTO IMPERIAL COUNTY THIS EARLY EVENING...WHERE GUSTS UP TO 45
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL TRANSLATE
INTO ROUGHLY 4 DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY AND WILL SHOOT FOR A HIGH OF
94 DEGREES IN PHOENIX.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL
CLOSE OFF WHILE DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO AZ TUE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT ISOLATED-SCATTERED PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LAPSE RATES LOOK EXCEPTIONALLY STEEP
WITH THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE LIFTED
INDICES HAVE ACTUALLY TRENDED A BIT HIGHER. DISCERNIBLE THREAT FOR
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION EXISTS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF
THUNDER EAST OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PRODUCE WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA.

EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING TROUGH. BUT MODELS ARE ALSO INTENT ON BRINGING ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DUE SOUTH INTO WEST TX EARLY FRI. EARLIER RUNS
SUGGESTED THAT THIS SYSTEM MIGHT WEAKEN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOW IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE REGION. WARMEST
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
TONIGHT...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN.
WEST WINDS FROM 10-20 MPH AT KPHX/KIWA SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
AND SWITCH TO THE SE BY 09Z. STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVE LIKELY TO BE
AT KIPL...WHERE SW TO W WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH THRU
06Z...THEN LOWER TO BELOW 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 KNOTS POSSIBLE
THRU MIDNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ALL LOCALES TONIGHT THRU MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID/HI CLOUDS OUT WEST AFTER 21Z.

WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER MONDAY AT ALL SITES AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KTS/GUSTS
TO 25 KTS IN CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...TO 20-25 KTS/GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS IN SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING KIPL. STRONGEST GUSTS AT BOTH KIPL AND KBLH
WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 22Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL 03-04Z TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST.
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. A MORE NOTABLE
INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR MONDAY WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AREA. WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 35
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN IMPERIAL COUNTY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A DECISION TO
UPGRADE THIS WATCH WILL BE PASSED ON TO LATER SHIFTS.

IN SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ARIZONA...EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY HERE AS WELL
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN TOP LOCATIONS MAY SEE EVEN
STRONGER WINDS. PARTS OF LA PAZ COUNTY MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION AND AREAL COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAKE THIS A
MARGINAL EVENT.

BY TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS...LIGHTER
WINDS...AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AS A NORTH WIND TAKES HOLD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. LATER
IN THE WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AS TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM QUICKLY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...
     FIRE WEATHER ZONE 131...FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MST MONDAY.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...EASTERN
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY AND IMPERIAL COUNTY INCLUDING THE LOWER
     COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 230...231...AND 232
     FROM 2 TO 8 PM PDT MONDAY.

&&

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS/HIRSCH
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
526 AM MST MON MAY 12 2008

AZZ020-025-CAZ031>033-131230-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-
IMPERIAL COUNTY-
526 AM MST MON MAY 12 2008 /526 AM PDT MON MAY 12 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY. ACROSS IMPERIAL
COUNTY...WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING.

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS OVER DESERT AREAS COULD
RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES TO WELL UNDER A MILE AT TIMES
IN BLOWING DUST OR BLOWING SAND. MOTORISTS...INCLUDING THOSE
TRAVELING ALONG INTERSTATE 8 AND HIGHWAY 78...ARE ADVISED TO USE
EXTRA CAUTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDY CONDITIONS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL ALSO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

HIRSCH