Red Flag Warning 30, NWS Phoenix, AZ

000 
WWUS85 KPSR 151127
RFWPSR

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
427 AM MST TUE APR 15 2008

AZZ131>133-CAZ230>232-160400-
/O.CON.KPSR.FW.W.0030.080415T1700Z-080416T0400Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 131                                    
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 132                                    
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 133                                    
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
CALIFORNIA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 230                                 
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-
CALIFORNIA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 231                                 
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
CALIFORNIA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 232                                 
IMPERIAL COUNTY AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY-
427 AM MST TUE APR 15 2008 /427 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MST /10 AM PDT/
THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MST /9 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA...DUE TO STRONG GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MST /10 AM PDT/
THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MST /9 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING. 

A STRONG AND DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES WILL LEAD TO STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA DESERTS...WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOSE OVER CALIFORNIA
AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BUT ARE STILL ANTICIPATED
TO BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS. WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...IN
ADDITION TO HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER THE ARIZONA DESERTS...WILL LEAD
TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
310 PM MST MON APR 14 2008

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG...BUT DRY UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL ALSO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER AND LESS WIND FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE WIND AND CONTINUED NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
CURRENT UPPER RIDGE PRODUCING OUR WARM...DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER IS
HEADED OFF TO THE EAST AS NEXT IN THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF
DRY UPPER TROUGHS/FRONTS APPROACHES. THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS SEEN NICELY
ON WV LOOPS ALONG THE PAC NW COAST. AS IT PUSHES EWD...WE CAN
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS MANY SPOTS INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WIND
GRIDS WILL PULL UP JUST SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MID
SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS WITH LATEST DATA IN
HAND. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF COOLING ON
WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. GFS AND EURO 12Z RUNS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGGED TO MOVE IN BY THEN. MAY
HAVE A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING OVER ERN CWA ON THURSDAY...LITTLE
ADDED COOLING EXPECTED OUT IN W. RH PROGS INSIST THIS WILL BE A VERY
DRY SYSTEM FOR PHX CWA...INCLUDING THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYERS. SO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOR MORE
SETTLED CONDITIONS...IE SUNNY...LITTLE WIND AND SEASONAL TEMPS.
HOWEVER...NEXT TROUGH WILL BE POISED TO ENTER OUR WX SCENE BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EURO AND GFS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH GFS SETTLING A MONSTER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND THE EURO LIFTING MAIN BULK OF ENERGY EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS BY MONDAY. NOT SURE WHICH ONE WILL VERIFY BEST...BUT THE GFS
SOLUTION APPEARS AT LEAST A LITTLE EXCESSIVE. FOR NOW...WILL NOT
CALL FOR THE AMOUNT OF COOLING THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD ENTAIL...
RATHER WILL INDICATE A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP LOWERING. OF COURSE...
ANOTHER BOUT OF WIND WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM OVER
THE WEEKEND NO MATTER WHICH PROG ENDS UP BEING RIGHT...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS.

KPHX AND KIWA WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AROUND 23 UTC THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT KPHX AND
KIWA TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WEST WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS WILL PREVAIL FROM ABOUT 18 UTC TUESDAY THROUGH
04 UTC WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DIEING DOWN SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WEST
WINDS ARE LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA DESERTS AND
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY STARTING 15 UTC
TUESDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. SUSTAINED WEST
WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 28 KTS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 18 UTC TUESDAY AND 01 UTC WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
AND SAND WITH REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE...BUT FCST
CONFIDENCE OF EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MST/PDT TUESDAY FOR ALL OF SE
CA...THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...SW AZ AND S-CNRL AZ DUE TO STRONG
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. PLEASE SEE PRODUCT
HEADER PHXRFWPSR FOR MORE DETAILS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS WIND EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN
WINDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MST TUESDAY FOR
     FOR AZZ131>133.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     FOR CAZ230>232.

&&

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

SHORT TERM...ESTLE
LONG TERM...ESTLE
AVIATION...LW
FIRE WEATHER...LW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
531 AM MST MON APR 14 2008

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-151245-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
531 AM MST MON APR 14 2008 /531 AM PDT MON APR 14 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WEST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND GENERATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS...COMBINED WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
...WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY.
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WIND GUSTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THAT COULD APPROACH 40 MPH...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST AND SAND.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEYERS