Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
620 AM MST MON JAN 28 2008

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
TODAY WITH THE SNOW LEVEL ABOVE 55 HUNDRED OR 6 THOUSAND FEET.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. YET ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW NORTH
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY SUNDAY. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JANUARY
AND EARLY FEBRUARY ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IT HAS BEEN A BUSY OVERNIGHT DEALING WITH FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND
AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA HAVE BEEN DECREASING VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT AS OF 4 AM MST...THERE WERE STILL SOME BANDS OF
SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY TO WESTERN GILA COUNTY.
GAGES WERE STILL INDICATING NEAR FLOOD STAGE ON AGUA FRIA RIVER AT
ROCK SPRINGS AND ON THE CAVE CREEK AT SPUR CROSS BUT SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO COME DOWN.

RECEIVED AN ISOLATED REPORT OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO NEAR ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AT THE YUMA PROVING GROUND NORTHEAST OF YUMA THIS
MORNING. WITH THE AIRMASS AS SATURATED AS IT IS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT WILL BE OF
MINIMAL COVERAGE.

THE LOW PRESSURE IMPULSE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL MOVE EAST WITH DECREASING SHOWERS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT NOT
NEARLY AS MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND BREEZY ELSEWHERE
TODAY. PLAN ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ENDING BY LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TUESDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRUSH
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SNOW LEVEL NEAR 4 THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
LOW PRESSURE TROF IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IT WILL BRING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. IT
SHOULD MOVE THRU QUICKLY...WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW AND HIGHER
HEIGHTS SET TO FOLLOW THURSDAY. LONG WAVE PATTERN HAS A GENERAL
...BROAD TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND THIS LEAVES
OUR AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO PASSING AND DEEPENING SHORT WAVES MOVING
THRU THE LONG WAVE TROF. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS NOT A WARM PATTERN SO MAX TEMPS WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AND SHOULD STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY COLDER TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA ON SUPER
BOWL SUNDAY. MEX POPS ATTM ARE RATHER LOW...UNDER 30 PERCENT...BUT
BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE FORECASTING A WEEKEND TROF...AND RECENT
SPAGHETTI ENSEMBLES SHOW REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG THE VARIOUS
MEMBERS ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT WE MAY WELL HAVE ANOTHER WEATHER MAKER ON OUR HANDS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...AND DROPPED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
JANUARY 28 1300 UTC (JANUARY 28 0600 MST)

FOR KPHX/KIWA AND VALLEY AIRFIELDS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 3500 FEET AGL THROUGH 15Z. AFTER 15Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL RAPIDLY
DIMINISH...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET AGL.

FOR KYUM...KIPL AND KBLH...CLEARING SKIES WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND
6000 FEET AGL. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE INTO 15-25KT
RANGE...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 35KT BY 20Z...PERSISTING THROUGH
23Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION IS NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MEYERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
713 AM MST MON JAN 28 2008

AZZ022>024-028-291415-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
713 AM MST MON JAN 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE AND HEAVY RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. HOWEVER...RUN-OFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH TODAY. WASHES AND CREEKS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...PLEASE
CONSULT SHORT-TERM FLOOD WARNING PRODUCTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ020-021-CAZ030>033-291415-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
713 AM MST MON JAN 28 2008 /613 AM PST MON JAN 28 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME WEST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA...WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND INTO ARIZONA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THAT AREA. SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

INIGUEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
727 AM MST MON JAN 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N PUNKIN CENTER       33.92N 111.33W
01/28/2008                   GILA               AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GILA COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS NUMEROUS EVACUATIONS
            HAVE TAKEN PLACE AT RV AND TRAILER PARKS ALONG THE TONTO
            CREEK. ROUGH ESTIMATION OF 50 TO 75 PEOPLE EVACUATED.
            SHELTER HAS BEEN SET UP IN TONTO BASIN.

&&

INIGUEZ