Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Phoenix, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KPSR 142021
FFSPSR

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
121 PM MST MON JUL 14 2008

AZC013-142030-
/O.CON.KPSR.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-080714T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARICOPA AZ-
121 PM MST MON JUL 14 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM MST FOR
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTY...

AT 112 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED 
AREA. RAINFALL GAGES AND RADAR DERIVED PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES 
INDICATE ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE LOCAL CREEKS AND WASHES TO RUN...INCLUDING 
SQUAW CREEK.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3403 11211 3403 11203 3402 11192 3387 11185
      3387 11197 3388 11209

$$

INIGUEZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1050 AM MST MON JUL 14 2008

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS ARIZONA WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND WITH RELATIVELY COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. MUCH OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. THE
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME DRIER AND WARMER BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER ARIZONA.
THIS WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEATHER
MODELS ARE INDICATING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS S-CNTRL AZ AND SWITCHED WEATHER
WORDING FROM PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE WORDING. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE
ZONES/GRIDS.

LOOKING AT 12Z UPPER AIR DATA...KPSR SOUNDING IS EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST
WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST OVER TWO INCHES. MID SHIFT LOWERED
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE A GOOD CALL. THE
LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL PUT A BIT OF A LID ON CAPE/INSTABILITY
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. EVEN STILL...MODEST WARMING GIVES CAPE
VALUES NEAR 1000. MAIN FACTOR IN INCREASING POPS FOR TODAY WAS BASED
ON LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. HARD TO ASSESS...BUT
APPEARS THAT THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL SMALL
CIRCULATIONS/PERTURBATIONS IN THE SWLY FLOW. LOOKING BACK AT
YESTERDAY...APPEARS THAT IT WAS ONE OF THESE SMALL WAVES WHICH
HELPED KICK-OFF CONVECTION. WITH A SIMILAR FLOW...AND GIVEN THE
AIRMASS...FELT POPS NEEDED TO BE HIGHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2
INCHES NECESSITATED HEAVY RAIN WORDING. WOULD CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...BUT NOT SOLD THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WOULD BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT IT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT THOUGH THROUGH
THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OTHERWISE...THE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS...HOW CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WILL
IT GET? OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TEND TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS (300 MB AND
ABOVE) OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF AZ THAT COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND
OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION COULD TRIGGER CENTRAL DESERT
CONVECTION BY EVENING...INCLUDING PHOENIX. UPPER LEVEL SPEED
DIVERGENCE...OR REAR ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS...IS FORECAST OVER THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. IN OTHER WORDS...15
KNOT 250 MB WINDS OVER CASA GRANDE ACCELERATE ANTI-CYCLONICALLY INTO
A 45 KNOT JET MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKER
ON TUESDAY.

OVER SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ...NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
EXPECTED THOUGH VERY HUMID CONDITIONS COULD STILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY...
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
LOW LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE THINNING SOMEWHAT. THEREFORE ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ARE EXPECTED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF MOVING NORTH FROM MEXICO COULD TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL...AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AZ. AND...A LARGER UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROF IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD AZ FROM WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX/KIWA AND SURROUNDING
AIRFIELDS...SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE PHOENIX METRO AREA...WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OFF TO AN
EARLY START TODAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS TODAY...SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR THE LOWER DESERT FLOORS. IT APPEARS THE
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OF T-STORMS AND WIND
SHIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW...DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND LOCATION...BUT WILL AMEND IF TRENDS LEAD
TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...KNYL/KBLH AND KIPL...
THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER
CO RIVER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE SOUTH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 MPH TODAY...WITH A TENDENCY TO TURN MORE TO
THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST AFTER 22Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE COLORADO RIVER WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...WITH RH VALUES TREND DOWN
SLOWLY...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MODELS HINTING THAT MOISTURE LEVELS COULD
INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BEAR MONITORING.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...CB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
912 AM MST MON JUL 14 2008

AZZ021>023-026>028-150400-
WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-
GREATER PHOENIX AREA-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
912 AM MST MON JUL 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO
THE FLOODING OF ROADS...STREAMS...WASHES AND LOW LYING AREAS.
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH....AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...AND DEADLY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ024-150400-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
912 AM MST MON JUL 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING OF AREA ROADS...STREAMS...WASHES AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN
ADDITION...STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ020-025-CAZ030>033-150400-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
912 AM MST MON JUL 14 2008 /912 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH...BLOWING DUST AND SAND...AND DEADLY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS GREATER THAN 45
MPH...BLOWING DUST AND SAND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

INIGUEZ/HV