Wind Advisory 3, NWS Pocatello, ID

000 
WWUS75 KPIH 290057
NPWPIH

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
557 PM MST MON JAN 28 2008



IDZ017-021-290200-
/O.EXP.KPIH.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-080129T0100Z/
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLEY...RUPERT...SHOSHONE...CAREY...
POCATELLO...BLACKFOOT...FORT HALL...AMERICAN FALLS
557 PM MST MON JAN 28 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON. 

AT 550 PM MST WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH AND CONTINUING TO DECREASE. THEREFORE THE WIND ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
228 AM MST MON JAN 28 2008

.SHORT TERM...MESSY DAY AWAITS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY MAKING EVEN TEMPERATURES DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. KBOI
UNDERWENT WIND SHIFT NEAR 28/08Z WITH PRESSURE RISING SO EXPECT
FRONT IS THROUGH THERE AND SHOULD MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE MODELED THIS IN GRIDS AND WILL POST EDIT INTO ZFP.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL TODAY ALONG WITH STRONG WIND...SO
WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD FALL OFF SUDDENLY FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE MID-DAY PERIOD
AND DO NOT SEE A REASON TO EXTEND THEM ANY FURTHER THAN THE FIRST
PERIOD. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO WREAK HAVOC WITH
SPEED AS WIND ALIGNS BETTER WITH CENTRAL IDAHO RIVER BASINS THAT
EMPTY INTO SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. EXPECT A RE-FREEZING IN THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN WITH AFTERNOON COOL DOWN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR AN ICY
AFTERNOON DRIVE. COMBINE WITH WIND AND WILL KEEP WINTER WARNING IN
EFFECT HERE ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH WEAK
RIDGING FOR WED/WED NIGHT. HAVE WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM
PREVIOUS THINKING AS TIMING OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE MORNING
WITH 700MB WIND GOING UP THOUGH DECREASING AT 28/18Z. 700MB JET
EXPECTED THIS MORNING WILL PACK 50KT TO 70KT WIND
OVERHEAD...THOUGH BY 28/18Z IT HAS ALREADY LOWERED TO AROUND 40KT.
EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH KPIH/KIDA SOMEWHERE NEAR 28/14Z
THIS MORNING. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT AND INTENSE
MSLP GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WIND GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO HELP BOTH WIND AND
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FOR THE AFTERNOON WHEN LEFT EXIT REGION
OF JET LINGERS ON TOP OF FORECAST AREA.  MESSICK

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG EXTENDED MODELS.
FIRST STORM OVERSPREADS REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHING ESE ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER TO HELP LEND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT TO PRECIPITATION EVENT
WHILE LI/S ACTUALLY DROP TO ZERO FRIDAY 12Z FOR ADDED INSTABILITY.
THUS HAVE PUSHED PROBABILITIES UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR WELL SUPPORTED
SYSTEM AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. SHALLOW TRANSIENT SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT PAC WAVE DIGS
INTO THE NW COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GFS INDICATING WAVE DIGS
SHARPLY SSE THROUGH CALIFORNIA WITH ENSUING CLOSED LOW PINCHING OFF
OVER SRN NEVADA BY MONDAY MORNING WHEREAS THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING A
SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE DIGGING SE THROUGH NEVADA INTO NEW
MEXICO BY MONDAY MORNING. WILL AWAIT BETTER TRACK AND TIMING
AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS...CURRENT CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD LOOKED REASONABLE. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...REMAINS OF CLOSED LOW THAT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY WAS EJECTING NE THROUGH SE IDAHO EARLY THIS
MORNING. NRN BRANCH OF ADVANCING PAC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW TODAY. SURFACE FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF
KBOI AT 08Z THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST
THIS MORNING PUSHING THROUGH KBYI AROUND 12Z AND THEN THROUGH
KIDA/KPIH AROUND 15Z. AS WINDS TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT PRECIPITATION WILL FILL THE SNAKE VALLEY WITH
CIGS FALLING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS
IN MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
MID-AFTERNOON.  STRONG GUSTY SOUTH TO WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 03Z. A POTENTIAL SNAKE RIVER CONVERGENCE EVENT IN THE UPPER
VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVE AND SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS FOR MVFR
STRATUS LAYER DEVELOPING AT KPIH AND KIDA LATE TONIGHT WILL LEAVE
RESTRICTING CIGS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HUSTON

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IDZ017-
019>025.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR IDZ018-031.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
500 AM MST MON JAN 28 2008

IDZ017>025-031-032-291330-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
500 AM MST MON JAN 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IDAHO DUE TO HIGH WIND...HEAVY SNOWFALL...AND ICY CONDITIONS.  CHECK
THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH IDAHO DURING
THIS PERIOD.  THE FIRST ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADS
EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL IDAHO TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE SECOND ARRIVES
THURSDAY IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND AGAIN SPREADS EASTWARD
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A THIRD STORM MAY ARRIVE DURING THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

MESSICK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
559 AM MST MON JAN 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     HEAVY SNOW       6 N HAILEY              43.60N 114.30W
01/28/2008  M20.0 INCH       BLAINE             ID   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            24 HOUR TOTAL FROM 27/0500 TO 28/0500. STATE ROUTE 75
            NEEDED CHAIN CONTROLS

&&

JMESSICK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
722 AM MST MON JAN 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     HEAVY SNOW       2 NE HAILEY             43.53N 114.27W
01/28/2008  M15.0 INCH       BLAINE             ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR ACCUMULATION THROUGH 7 AM TODAY.

&&

GEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
742 AM MST MON JAN 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     HEAVY SNOW       7 NE HAILEY             43.58N 114.20W
01/28/2008  M15.0 INCH       BLAINE             ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ACCUMULATION FROM 11 AM 27 JAN TO 730 THIS MORNING. HIGH
            WINDS HAVE CAUSED DRIFTS RANGING FROM 6 INCHES TO TWO
            FEET.

&&

GEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
907 AM MST MON JAN 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  WAYAN                   42.98N 111.37W
01/28/2008  M15 MPH          CARIBOU            ID   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR ACCUMULATION THROUGH 9 AM TODAY.

&&

GEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
932 AM MST MON JAN 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     SNOW             BERN                    42.33N 111.38W
01/28/2008  E3.0 INCH        BEAR LAKE          ID   CO-OP OBSERVER

            ACCUMULATION THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING WITH 50+ MPH WIND
            GUSTS OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY SNOWING AT RATE OF 1 INCH PER
            HOUR WITH 25 MPH WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING.

&&

GEW