Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Pocatello, ID

000 
WWUS55 KPIH 092005
SVSPIH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
205 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2008

IDC037-092016-
/O.EXP.KPIH.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-080809T2015Z/
CUSTER ID-
206 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME EAST CENTRAL CUSTER
COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 215 PM MDT...

LAT...LON 4442 11342 4440 11339 4437 11339 4435 11335
      4429 11332 4425 11332 4422 11335 4423 11340
      4422 11341 4432 11357 4445 11344
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 220DEG 28KT 4437 11334

$$

MESSICK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
950 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE CNTRL
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH AN ISOLATED CELL WORKING NE THROUGH THE
SNAKE PLAIN. THUS HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE EARLIER AND WIDER
COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS MORNING. STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH
SEVERE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD DYNAMICAL FORCING AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO FUEL CELLS. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW. HUSTON

ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. SLOT OF
DRIER AIR WORKING ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS HOUR AHEAD OF LARGE SYSTEM
MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. HOWEVER...NEXT LITTLE WAVE SHOWING UP
ALREADY IN NV MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. AS OF 315 AM...ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALREADY AND EXPECT THE UPWARD TREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL
BE IN THE MTNS AND UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER THREAT OF LARGER HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. EVEN THOUGH DRIER AIR ARRIVES TODAY...PW
VALUES OF .75 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECASTED FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
AFTER THIS EVENING...LARGE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE INLAND
AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER TODAY...MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...EFFECTIVELY
CUTTING OFF HIGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS REALLY NO MODEL AGREEMENT AS ECMWF HAS A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE GFS LOOKS SOMEWHAT UNREASONABLE WITH
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE PACNW WITH A CLOSED OFF OFF THE CA COAST
AND ANOTHER ONE OVER MT. WILL CONTINUE THE PREVAILING IDEA OF DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE IN SW FLOW TO PRODUCE ISOLD MTN
STORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS EVEN WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE/HUMID AIR/CLOUD COVER GONE. THIS WILL BE DUE TO
COOLER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE AS RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEK. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR THESE
STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 475...476...477...409 AND 410. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE WORKING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE THE THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE
WORKING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
IDZ409-410-475>477.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
357 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2008

IDZ017>025-031-032-101000-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
357 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN
IDAHO. THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE
PLAIN. GUSTY WIND AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WELL. DUE TO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL
LIGHTNING STARTS...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF
EASTERN IDAHO. PLEASE SEE RFWPIH FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL MAKE FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AND FOR BOATERS ON AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.