Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
100 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS JUST EAST OF THE
FCST AREA THIS AFTN. WV LOOP SHOWS MID LEVEL MSTR CONTINUING TO
STREAM NWD UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE BULK OF THE MSTR IS
OVER WRN ID/ERN OR/WA...BUT DOES EXTEND EWD ENOUGH TO COVER THE FCST
AREA. THUS...EXPECTING TSTMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTN/EVE MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS...WITH ISOLD TSTMS IN THE VALLEYS. INVERTED V SOUNDING
PROFILE FROM THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTY WINDS WITH TSTMS.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUR AROUND SUNSET. THE RIDGE LOSES
AMPLITUDE ON TUE...WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL MSTR DIRECTED
MORE INTO THE FCST AREA. SHOULD SEE A REPEAT OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TUE AFTN/EVE. BOTH NAM AND GFS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PATTERN...THE NAM BETTER DEPICTING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK UP ON WED...AND SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MID LEVEL MSTR OUT OF THE FCST AREA...SO WILL
KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR THE MOST PART.

THE RIDGE HOLDS FIRM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AND FINALLY BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN ON THE WEEKEND. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW AND THE JET
SAGGING TO THE CEN MTNS...WILL INCLUDE A FEW TSTMS IN THE CEN MTNS
SAT AND SUN. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK UP AGAIN FOR ANOTHER WARM AND DRY
DAY ON MON. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD TO SCATTERED TSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
36 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
HEATING OF THE DAY. THE THREAT OF SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
BLOWING DUST IS A POSSIBILITY WHERE DRY DOWNBURSTS EXIST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF TSTORM AREAS..WITH
WINDS NOT A MAJOR FACTOR.  KEYES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ON A WIDER AREAL BASIS THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT THE THREAT
WILL STILL BE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.
SLIGHT COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE RIDGE REBOUNDS BRIEFLY
MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE START OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EVEN THEN...THE THREAT OF TSTORMS WILL BE ON AN
ISOLATED BASIS. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&