Lake Wind Advisory 2, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
300 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT UPSTREAM LOW CLEARLY
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT WAS SETTLING INTO THE SEATTLE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SUB-TROPICAL WAVE WAS
ACCELERATING NE TOWARD SRN NEVADA WITH ATTENDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVANCING ACROSS NRN NEVADA INTO SRN IDAHO. EARLY MORNING
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH OVER GREAT BASIN EXTENDING
NORTH THROUGH FORECAST AREA WHILE MARINE PUSH WAS CLEARLY EVIDENT
ACROSS OREGON/WASHINGTON BORDER AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGED EAST.
MAIN WEATHER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING FROM CNTRL OREGON NE THROUGH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN MID/UPR CLOUDS FROM WAVE TO SOUTH
TODAY. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT SHIFTS EAST
TODAY ADVANCING INTO THE CNTRL MOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH
GFS/NAM RATHER DRY ACROSS THE REMAINING PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AND
THUS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED POPS DOWN THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS WHERE LIKELY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN. WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...THE
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WITH
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTATION IS THAT GOOD PORTION OF
700MB 20-30KTS WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO SURFACE AS GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO SURGES UP SNAKE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE BUMPED WINDS UPWARD WHICH HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND ADV FOR AMERICAN FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVE. LITTLE PROGRESS NOTED WITH UPPER LOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS
IT REMAINS POSITIONED OVER WASHINGTON. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT IN EJECTING A WAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE OUR
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY EJECTING WAVE AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH SUNDAY FOR WIND ADVISORY AND
HAVE MAINTAINED THIS ELEMENT OF GOING FORECAST HOLDING OFF ON
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW. AS WAVE LIFTS INTO MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT MAIN
DYNAMICAL FOCUS WILL SHIFT INTO THAT REGION AND EVENTUALLY SRN
CANADA LEAVING SRN IDAHO UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH ILL DEFINED
FORCING. THUS HAVE GENERALLY RAMPED PRECIP POTENTIAL UP TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THEN ALLOWED IT TO GRADUALLY FALL OFF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH EJECTING WAVE PASSING THROUGH AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE THUNDER SNOW AND THUS HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION OF TSTMS TO FORECAST...BELIEVE FOCUS WILL BE OVER ERN
HIGHLANDS IN AFTN JUST AHEAD OF EJECTING FEATURE. SNOWFALL TOTALS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT PLACE CNTRL MOUNTAINS AND SNAKE
HIGHLANDS NOSING UP NEAR WARNING CRITERIA BUT FALLING SHORT ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. BULK OF SNOWFALL WILL
LIKELY BE ABOVE 7500 MSL SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON TODAY IN SW FLOW...AIRMASS TURNS
DECIDEDLY COLDER SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY
RUNNING 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT. MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
REMAINS COOL AND UNSETTLED AND MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVES OFF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING SOME WARMING BY WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BECOMES ALMOST A TOSS UP AND USED QUITE THE BROAD BRUSH TO PAINT
THIS FORECAST. ALSO KEPT THINGS IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS COOLER AND WETTER WHILE THE GFS BRINGS US INTO A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. USING GUIDANCE FROM THE NCEP KEPT THINGS A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COOLER ECMWF. ALL THAT SAID...REALLY DID NOT MODIFY
EXISTING FORECAST MUCH AFTER THURSDAY BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. DITTMANN
&&

.AVIATION...TRANSITION DAY FOR THE REGION AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. TAF SITES
ACROSS SE IDAHO WILL REMAIN VFR BUT EXPERIENCE SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AFTER 00Z. DITTMANN
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THROUGH 9 PM MDT TODAY FOR
AMERICAN FALLS RES ZONE 21.  SEE STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
&&

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