Freeze Warning 8, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
231 PM MDT FRI OCT 10 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
COMPLEX FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW IN SOUTHWEST
IDAHO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MAIN CIRCULATION DEVELOPS IN
SOUTHERN NEVADA. SNOW WITH THE INITIAL UPPER LOW HAS OCCURRED IN
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS UNDER WARNING
CRITERIA. SOME SNOTEL SITES UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN STANLEY...CLAYTON AND CHALLIS THIS MORNING. CANCELED THE
WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THERE ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER CIRCULATION
DRIFTS SOUTH. ATTENTION HAS TURNED TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NEVADA LOW STILL FORECAST
TO DRIVE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY INTO NORTHERN UTAH. ALL MODELS
FOCUS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. UPGRADED WATCHES TO WARNINGS IN MOUNTAIN ZONES AND
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AS THINK AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER 6
INCHES. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS NAM
HAS NOW BECOME THE WETTEST MODEL WHILE THE GFS IS THE DRIEST.
STILL THINK THIS WILL BE ALL SNOW EVEN IN THE VALLEYS...AND WENT
WITH THIS IN GRIDS. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE IN SNAKE PLAIN AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT
WEST TO EAST WITH MOST OVER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF WYOMING
BORDER. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUED FREEZE
WARNING IN EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY ONLY TONIGHT AS HARD FREEZES IN
UPPER AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN LAST NIGHT.
GK

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM WEST ON MONDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS WELL AFTER
THE EXTREMELY COLD WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL READINGS BY THURSDAY.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS LARGE WINTER STORM REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY.  DSH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.  SIGNIFICANT
MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS.  DSH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 12 PM SATURDAY TO 12 PM MDT SUNDAY
FOR IDZ020-021.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 12 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
IDZ019-023>025.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
IDZ022.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR IDZ017.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY
FOR IDZ017.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
448 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2008

IDZ017>025-031-032-101200-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
448 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING.  PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST BOINPWPIH FOR DETAILS.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH NOON SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE BOIWSWPIH FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST IDAHO THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ALL ELEVATIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE WITH HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET. PLEASE SEE BOIWSWPIH FOR
DETAILS.

BY SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN IDAHO. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE BOIWSWPIH FOR DETAILS.

SNOWFALL IS ALSO FORECAST IN THE SNAKE PLAIN...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS
THAT A PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN POSTED FOR THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN. PLEASE SEE BOIWSWPIH FOR DETAILS.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE STORM MOVES
ON TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1056 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 AM     SNOW             6 N HAILEY              43.60N 114.30W
10/10/2008  M1.5 INCH        BLAINE             ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW ACCUMULATION SINCE 5AM TO PRESENT

0930 AM     SNOW             CHALLIS                 44.51N 114.22W
10/10/2008  E1.0 INCH        CUSTER             ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM MIDNIGHT TO PRESENT.

0930 AM     SNOW             CLAYTON                 44.26N 114.40W
10/10/2008  E1.5 INCH        CUSTER             ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW ACCUMLATION SINCE MIDNIGHT TO PRESENT

0935 AM     SNOW             4 N CHALLIS             44.57N 114.22W
10/10/2008  E2.0 INCH        CUSTER             ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW ACCUMULATION SINCE 2AM TO PRESENT

0937 AM     SNOW             STANLEY                 44.22N 114.94W
10/10/2008  E0.5 INCH        CUSTER             ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW ACCUMULATION SINCE 5AM TO PRESENT

0940 AM     SNOW             35 N KETCHUM            44.20N 114.38W
10/10/2008  E0.1 INCH        CUSTER             ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW ACCUMULATION SINCE APPROX. 5AM TO PRESENT.

0950 AM     SNOW             E HAILEY                43.51N 114.30W
10/10/2008  E0.0 INCH        BLAINE             ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LIGHTLY SNOWING SINCE APPROX. 5AM.

0945 AM     SNOW             23 N CHALLIS            44.84N 114.22W
10/10/2008  E4.5 INCH        CUSTER             ID   OTHER FEDERAL

            MORGAN CREEK SNOTEL, ELEV. 7,600 FT, ESTIMATED SNOW
            ACCUMULATION FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 8AM.

0945 AM     SNOW             13 WSW CHALLIS          44.44N 114.47W
10/10/2008  E6.0 INCH        CUSTER             ID   OTHER FEDERAL

            MILL CREEK SUMMIT SNOTEL, ELEV. 8,800 FT, ESTIMATED SNOW
            ACCUMULATION FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8AM.

0945 AM     SNOW             30 NW CHALLIS           44.81N 114.66W
10/10/2008  E5.0 INCH        LEMHI              ID   OTHER FEDERAL

            SCHWARTZ LAKE SNOTEL, ELEV. 8,540 FT, ESTIMATED SNOW
            ACUMULATION FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8AM.

0945 AM     SNOW             42 ESE CHALLIS          44.27N 113.44W
10/10/2008  E1.5 INCH        CUSTER             ID   OTHER FEDERAL

            MOONSHINE SNOTEL, ELEV. 7,440 FT, ESTIMATED SNOW
            ACCUMULATION FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8 AM

0945 AM     SNOW             28 NNW ARCO             44.01N 113.52W
10/10/2008  E1.5 INCH        CUSTER             ID   OTHER FEDERAL

            HILTS CREEK SNOTEL, ELEV. 8,000FT, ESTIMATED SNOW
            ACUMULATION FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8AM.

1025 AM     SNOW             STANLEY                 44.22N 114.94W
10/10/2008  E1.0 INCH        CUSTER             ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM APPROX. 5AM TO PRESENT.

&&

TWYATT