Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
330 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE SHOWS MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SURGE
INTO EASTERN IDAHO THIS MORNING. RADAR INDICATES PRECIPITATION
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST NEAR THE DIVIDE AND SHOULD BE
MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN. HIGH PW VALUES TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK. IT ALSO APPEARS PARAMETERS FOR MORE STORM
ORGANIZATION AND/OR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL GET
BETTER...ESPECIALLY FOR FRI AND SAT. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE CLOUD COVER...BUT ANY PROLONGED BREAKS WILL PUSH
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL BACK HIGHER. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED.
MODELS INDICATE THAT FRIDAY WOULD SEE THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL HAVE TO WATCHED
WITH MODELS STARTING TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER PW VALUES AND PRECIP
CHANCES NOW. WITH CONCERNS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE
CASTLE ROCK BURN SCAR...AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED SLIDES ABOUT 2 WEEKS
AGO AND STEEP TERRAIN...WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
FRI AFTN AND EVENING SPECIFICALLY MENTIONING THOSE AREAS. FCST
STILL CALLS FOR THE MONSOON MOISTURE BEING CUTOFF STARTING SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS
CANADA/NWRN CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST MON. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER. BOTH SHOW RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT IN PLACE AS A CUTOFF LOW SETTLES
OFFSHORE...WHILE THE GFS QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND ALLOWS
A CLOSED LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT A
DRIER AND WARMER FORECAST IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF FOR A WHILE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE HUMID
INTO THE WEEKEND THANKS TO THE MONSOON PUSH. EXPECT A SLOW WARMUP
TO BEGIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND BOTH THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH AND THE LOW OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST PRESENT POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE IN FORECAST AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MORE ACTIVE AREAS SHOULD BE THE WEST SIDE FROM BURLEY
NORTHWARD TO KSUN. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF HEAVY THUNDER
SHOWERS, CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. MVFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE WITH
RAIN SHAFTS. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ROTATE EITHER AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH OR IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS PRESENTS TRICKY TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN THE DISTRICT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FIRST
IN THE SALMON-CHALLIS FOREST AREAS AND FROM BEAR LAKE NORTH TO SWAN
VALLEY...FOLLOWED BY THE SOUTHERN SAWTOOTH ARA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TIME TO
MIDNIGHT FOR THESE AREAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WASHINGTON AND
OREGON COAST MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL BRING TWO DAYS OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND MOSTLY WETTING RAIN SHOWERS DISTRICT WIDE. SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR OLD BURN AREAS AROUND SUN VALLEY. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
IDZ412-475>477.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR IDZ018-031.

&&

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