Winter Weather Advisory 7, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 310708
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
308 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2008

...A WINTRY MIX MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING...

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-311500-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-080331T1500Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
308 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING. 

A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN
AND SLEET TO THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY THIS MORNING.
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME FREEZING RAIN.
HOWEVER, AS TEMPERATURES RISE TODAY, ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN BY AFTERNOON. 

WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OR ICE ARE EXPECTED...
EVEN A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MAY CAUSE
SLIPPERY ROADS WHICH MAY SLOW TRAVEL. 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

RNS

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 311343
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
943 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2008

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-311445-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-080331T1500Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
943 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED AREA OR TWO, TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE REGION HAVE RISEN TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. WHATEVER
PRECIPITATION FALLS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ICING. THEREFORE, THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

$$

RPW/MG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
756 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
CONTROL THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE REGION AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS INDICATED ON THE
FCST SOUNDINGS. FCST TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY N OF
PHL. FARTHER SOUTH, TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YDA WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW AND BKN CLOUDS LIMITING THE WARMTH OF THE SUN.

ALONG THE COAST, WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE AND TEMPS WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME HITTING 50 DUE TO THE FETCH FROM THE COLD OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TONIGHT, BUT LEFTOVER DRY AIR WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP PCPN THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE CLOUDS. AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE
BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. THEREFORE, POPS ARE
HIGHEST THERE. OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS, RAIN IS MORE CHANCY ON
MONDAY. OVER THE POCONOS AND NW NJ, IT WILL BE A RACE AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL WARM UP BEFORE PCPN BEGINS. I MAINTAINED THE
PREVIOUS MENTIONS OF PSBL FZRA AND SNOW AS PCPN BEGINS MONDAY AS
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING COULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH FOR A
PERIOD OF WINTRY PCPN, ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
RAIN LIKELY NORTH BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH, OTHERWISE, SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
NIGHT WILL EITHER REMAIN STATIONARY OR RISE SLOWLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FCST FROM HPC. THIS
MEANS TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AS WE GET INTO A WARM SECTOR TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE QUITE MILD EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST
DUE TO THE COLD OCEAN. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS, BUT THEY SHOULD
NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD UNTIL THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS COLD FRONT THERE MIGHT BE SOME TSTMS
BUT THAT FAR OUT IN TIME AND WITH A NIGHTTIME OCCURANCE, I KEPT
THEM ISOLATED IN THE GRIDS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRY COOL
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROMTHE WEST
SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH OF THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR, IF
ANY. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEW SYSTEM COULD BEGIN AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX NORTH, BUT CONSIDERING THE LATEST ECMWF, THE
CHANCES OF WINTRY PCPN LOOK TO BE DIMINISHING.

SATURDAY...DRY AIR RETURNS WITH A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROMT
HE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TODAY BEFORE
SLOWLY PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT, THE SKY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE DAY, WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS, BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE TONIGHT, BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE AC.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE
ON SATURDAY AS WELL, WITH MOST LOCATIONS 10 KTS OR LESS.

BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD, THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A FURTHER INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.

ON MONDAY, THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION, BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY SOME CIG AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO CANADA, ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS, AND AGAIN POSSIBLY
BRINGING SOME VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS.   HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS AROUND THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH ARE
GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AND HAVE PUSHED SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS. HAVE RAISED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE OCEAN SOUTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THIS WILL BE A
SHORT LIVED ADVISORY, ONLY GOING UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND LOOSE
THEIR GUSTINESS. THUS SEAS WILL FALL BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SWING AROUND FROM TO THE S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MAY CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. BLUSTERY NW WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
DROP OFF LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO DROP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO BE BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA, AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE ON SATURDAY AND FUELS
ARE STILL NOT VERY DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  AGAIN, WHILE
THERE IS A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA, CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO WARRANT A RFW.  ALSO, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD FURTHER ALLEVIATE
ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431-
     452>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...NIERENBERG
MARINE...RPW/NIERENBERG
FIRE WEATHER...NIERENBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
748 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2008

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-311200-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
748 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ007>010-012>027-PAZ060>062-
067>071-311200-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-
BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
748 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ431-452>455-311200-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
748 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-450-451-311200-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
748 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RPW