Winter Weather Advisory 15, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
514 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BUT WILL HAVE
LITTLE AFFECT ON IMPROVING THE WEATHER. PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY
TODAY BUT A FAST FLOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS GOING TO BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES AT THE TIME
OF THE PRECIPITATION. SOME NORTHERN AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE A MESSY
WINTRY MIX LATER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A PRETTY FORECAST OR FOR THAT MATTER A
PRETTY WEEK WITH ON EVENT AFTER ANOTHER. FOR TODAY HOWEVER...CONSENSUS
SEEMS THE NAM IS GOING TO BE THE CHOICE OF MODELS IN THE SHORT
TERM WHICH ISNT BAD. THE FRONT MOVED OFFSHORE AND NOW THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BUT FALLING SLOWLY WITH 33 AT
MPO. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME IS IN THE WARM AIR
AND MOVING STEADILY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. COLDEST AIR IS STILL A
WAYS WEST WHERE SOME LIGHT WINTER TYPE OCCURRING. THE WATCH HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND THAT MAY BE UPPED TO
A WARNING A LITTLE LATER TODAY BUT FIRST LETS TRY TO RESOLVE THIS
MORNING. WILL ALSO BE ISSUING AN SPS FOR THE GENERAL AREA.
12Z 80H 0C EXTENDS INTO NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. THE VERY COLD AIR
WILL BE EXITING TO OUR NORTH BUT SOME OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN TO OUR CFA JUST AHEAD OF THE OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW TONIGHT IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 40 TO 55
KNOTS AND THE COLD AIR RETREATS AGAIN TO THE NORTH. SOME POCKETS
OF COLD AIR WILL RESIDE IN THE VALLEYS BUT SCOURING WILL BE IN
FULL SWING BY 06Z WED. BUT, THE SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME MID LEVEL
WARMING CAPPING A SUBFREEZING SURFACE LAYER IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL DURING THE DAY AND
CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTH THEN CENTRAL AREAS THIS
THIS MORNING. ABE NEVER DROPS TO FREEZING BUT DOES AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WHEN THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS FALLING.

HAVE SLICED UP THE AREA PRETTY GOOD WITH THE FIRST ADVISORY GOING
IN EFFECT AT 20Z FOR OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES AND 7 PM FOR OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. LOWS TONIGHT 23 TO AROUND
37 DEGREES. GOT A CALL FROM OUR HIGH POINT SUSSEX CO NJ OBSERVER
WITH 32 AND CHANGE TO SNOW BUT 28 AT THE HIGHEST POINT IN THE
STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GOOD PART OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL AWAKEN WITH EITHER
ADVISORIES OR EVEN WINTER STORM WARNINGS DEPENDING UPON THE AMOUNT
OF FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS. AT THIS TIME A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
-FZ IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING. I
CAN DO THAT WHEN I COME IN AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY BUT WILL LEAVE ITS MARK
WITH SOME OF THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, A FAST
MOVING 80H FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THE ATMOSPHERE UP BY DAYBREAK.
THE SOUTHERLIES WILL TURN WESTERLY AND WILL NOT BRING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CAA BACK INTO THE REGION. THE COLDEST RETREATS UP INTO NEW
YORK STATE. A RATHER QUIET NIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.

HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE 34 TO 53 AND LOW 26 TO 39. THURSDAYS HIGH
34 TO 46.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE GET A BREAK IN THE ACTION THURSDAY, BUT BRIEFLY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY NOSES INTO THE AREA, KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY.
HOWEVER, BY LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING, A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA, BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION. IT COULD BE ANOTHER MIXTURE OF
P-TYPES AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT, THEN CHANGE TO MOSTLY RAIN BEHIND
IT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY FORM ALONG
THIS FRONT AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THIS SOLUTION, SO WE WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS THE DAYS PROGRESS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A MESSY FCST IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SEVERAL
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING SW TO NE.  THERE
IS A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND N AND W OF THE REGION AND ANOTHER S AND
E.  ACRS MOST OF THE TAF SITES, PRECIP HAS BECOME SPOTTY RECENTLY.
HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY A STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION AND THE WIND HAS SHIFTED TO THE NW
ACRS ALL TAF SITES.  EVENTUALLY, THE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND
BEGIN TO CHANGE THE LIQUID PRECIP TO A WINTRY MESS, MAINLY OVER NRN
AND WRN SECTIONS.  THE BEST CHCS FOR WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE KRDG AND
KABE, WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO KPHL OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER S AND E OF THE AREA, WITH AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
LACK OF PRECIP OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  HOWEVER, EXPECT MVFR WITH ANY
PRECIP AND EVENTUALLY IFR AS HEAVIER PRECIP AND WINTRY PRECIP BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE REGION. S AND E OF KPHL, THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
STAY PREDOMINANTLY RAIN.

OUTLOOK...
ON WEDNESDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY
INTO SERN CANADA AND ANOTHER CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE AREA BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, OFFERING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WX.  A STRONGER STORM WILL THEN TAKE AIM AT THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A CDFNT.  SCA FLAGS REMAIN UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THIS LOOKS GOOD AS THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT.  THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY.  THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THINGS DROP
OFF, BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS THE NEED FOR THAT.  THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF RESPITE FROM MARINE FLAGS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN TO THE NORTH.  ANOTHER, STRONGER
STORM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ON THE AREA WATERS.  OVERALL, A VERY
UNSETTLED WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ055-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-060-061-067>069.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...ROBINSON
AVIATION...NIERENBERG
MARINE...NIERENBERG

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