Tropical Storm Warning 1008, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

000 
WTUS81 KPHI 052159
HLSPHI

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM HANNA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
559 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES...

.AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS....INCLUDING BLOCK
ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.  A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.   

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.  

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT
160 MILES...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 240 MILES...SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. 

HANNA IS LOCATED NOW LOCATED 575 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FENWICK
ISLAND DELAWARE.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA SHOULD CROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...THEN MOVE ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE
LANDFALL...IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A SMALL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FOR
HANNA TO BECOME A HURRICANE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...
465 KM FROM THE CENTER.  

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.  

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HANNA.
 
HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7
INCHES FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. 

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ013-014-016-020>027-060130-
/O.CON.KPHI.TR.W.1008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
SALEM-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
559 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS LOCATED 575 MILE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FENWICK
ISLAND DELAWARE.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...
NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING...THERE IS ALSO A FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.  

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE WORKABLE FLASHLIGHTS OR PORTABLE
LANTERNS AND A BATTERY POWERED RADIO. HAVE A SUPPLY OF SPARE
BATTERIES. USE BATTERY POWERED LIGHTS INSTEAD OF CANDLES TO
PREVENT ACCIDENTALLY STARTING A FIRE. EMERGENCY PERSONNEL AND FIRE
FIGHTERS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REACH YOU DURING THE STORM.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AS HANNA MOVES UP THE COAST. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING...THEN BECOME HEAVIER ON
SATURDAY. FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...AND URBANIZED
AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF THIS HEAVY RAIN.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING BEGINS TO OCCUR. 
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. IF YOU ENCOUNTER ANY
FLOODING WHILE DRIVING...TURN AROUND. 

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HANNA.
GIVEN THE NEAP TIDE...THESE STORM SURGE VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD TIDAL FLOODING JUST BY THEMSELVES.
HOWEVER...WAVE ACTION PRODUCED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
INCREASE TOTAL WATER HEIGHTS ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT AND THE BAYS.
HEAVY RAIN COINCIDENT WITH THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE COULD ALSO
ENHANCE THE FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE OCEAN AND BAY SHORES DUE TO THE
FACT THAT RUNOFF WOULD HAVE NOWHERE TO DRAIN.

BEACH EROSION CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FROM WIND AND WAVE ACTION.

TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDE FOR SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY COAST AND DELAWARE COASTS...

SANDY HOOK NJ..........12:52 AM AND 1:20 PM.
SEASIDE HEIGHTS NJ.....12:22 AM AND 12:50 PM.
ATLANTIC CITY NJ.......12:14 AM AND 12:49 PM.
CAPE MAY OCEAN NJ......12:59 AM AND 1:27 PM.
FENWICK ISLAND DE......12:38 AM AND 1:06 PM.

FOR THE DELAWARE BAY...

BREAKWATER HARBOR DE...01:31 AM AND 2:00 PM.
REEDY POINT DE.........04:28 AM AND 4:48 PM. 

...WINDS...

SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...GREATER THAN 39 MPH
WITH GUST UP TO 60 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS SIMILAR TO THE
MOTHERS DAY STORM OF 2008. 

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. 

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AS HANNA MOVES UP THE COAST. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING...THEN BECOME HEAVIER ON
SATURDAY. FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...AND URBANIZED
AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF THIS HEAVY RAIN.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
 
...TORNADOES...

THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ON SATURDAY OVER DELAWARE
AND EASTERN NEW JERSEY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 930 PM EDT...

$$

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-017>019-PAZ067>071-060130-
/O.CON.KPHI.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080907T0300Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-
BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
559 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS LOCATED 575 MILE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FENWICK
ISLAND DELAWARE.
 

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING...THERE IS ALSO A FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS 

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AS HANNA MOVES UP THE COAST. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING...THEN BECOME HEAVIER ON
SATURDAY. FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...AND
URBANIZED AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF THIS
HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING BEGINS TO OCCUR.
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. IF YOU ENCOUNTER ANY
FLOODING WHILE DRIVING...TURN AROUND.

...WINDS...

FREQUENT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 45 MPH...ARE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE MORE LIKELY.
 

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
AS HANNA MOVES UP THE COAST. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING...THEN BECOME HEAVIER ON
SATURDAY. FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...AND
URBANIZED AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF THIS
HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

ON THE MAIN STEM DELAWARE RIVER...RISES OF UP TO 3/4 BANKFULL ARE
POSSIBLE. ON THE LOWER SCHUYLKILL RIVER NEAR PHILADELPHIA...RISES
UP TO NEAR BANKFULL ARE POSSIBLE.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 930 PM EDT.

$$

ANZ430-431-450>455-470-060130-
/O.CON.KPHI.TR.W.1008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE FROM 20 TO 40 NM-
559 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS LOCATED 575 MILE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FENWICK
ISLAND DELAWARE. 
 

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT ON SATURDAY. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD
CHECK THEIR MOORINGS.

...WAVES...

THE WAVES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 10 TO 12 FEET SATURDAY AT THE
DELAWARE BAY BUOY. WAVES ALONG THE BEACHES WILL BREAK ON THE ORDER
OF 6 TO 7 FEET.

...WINDS...

SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...GREATER THAN 39 MPH
WITH GUST UP TO 60 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS SIMILAR TO THE
MOTHERS DAY STORM OF 2008.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER DELAWARE BAY 

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 930 PM EDT.

$$


EBERWINE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1139 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR EAST WILL SLIDE FURTHER AWAY THIS
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE
EAST COAST STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
HANNA IS FORECAST TO BE INCREASING IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD. THE STORM WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY ON. A
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT MAY THEN TEND TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO CHANGE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING. WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN INLAND TROPICAL
STORM WIND WARNING FOR MOST OF OUR CWA EXCEPT A WIND ADVISORY FOR
OUR FIVE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WE BELIEVE THAT BECAUSE OF THE
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN, EVEN IF THE WIND DOES NOT LIVE UP TO ITS
EXPECTATIONS INLAND, THE DAMAGE FROM LOOSENED AND SATURATED SOIL
PLUS THE DURATION FACTOR WOULD BE SIMILAR IF STRONGER WINDS WERE TO
OCCUR ON A SO CALLED SUNNY DAY.

A SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS THE
REMNANTS OF GUSTAV WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDED EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NEW YORK STATE.
TROPICAL STORM HANNA CONTINUES TO CHURN OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST AND IS TENDING TO LOOK A BIT MORE ORGANIZED WITH ITS CENTRAL
PRESSURE DROPPING SOME AND ALSO AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED HAS
BEEN NOTED. THE MAIN EMPHASIS HAS BEEN PLACED ON THE ANTICIPATED
IMPACTS THAT HANNA WILL BRING TO OUR CWA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. BUT FIRST, THEN CALM BEFORE THE STORM.

FOR TODAY, WE WILL BE IN A TRANSITION MODE AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BUILT WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL GIVE WAY AS IT SLIDES
TO THE EAST. BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING MIDLEVEL RIDGE AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES, HANNA WILL BE
FORCED NORTHWARD. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHS, HANNA IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD WITH TIME. AS THIS ALL CONTINUES
TO UNFOLD, A DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
TODAY WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE THETA-E ADVECTION ARRIVING FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. SINCE OUR WEATHER WILL
PRIMARILY BE GOVERNED BY THE DEPARTING MIDLEVEL RIDGE, WE ARE
EXPECTING A DRY DAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. THERE MAY BE A TOUCH OF STRATUS FLOATING AROUND WITH
ISOLATED FOG, HOWEVER IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY MORNING. AN INCREASING BREEZE WILL BE OCCURRING ALONG THE
COAST AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE GENERALLY UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE ETA/GFS
MOS AS THIS HAS SEEMED TO EVEN OUT THE DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE THE MOST IMPACT AS HANNA IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH SOME WITH THEIR TRACK HOWEVER THE
CONSENSUS THAT THE CENTER OF HANNA TRACKS CLOSE TO OUR COAST
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE ARE SOME IMPACTS THAT MAY OR MAY NOT COME
TOGETHER, AND WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO THE
TRACK, IT IS STILL LOWER REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM
QPF AXIS.

AS HANNA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT, AN INCREASING LOW TO
MID LEVEL JET WILL DRIVE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO AID IN STRENGTHENING LIFT WHICH WILL DRIVE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER WELL AHEAD OF HANNA,
ESPECIALLY FROM LATE EVENING ON. THE TIMING APPEARS TO BE A BIT
SLOWER THEREFORE WE DID DELAY THE RAMP UP INTO THE LIKELY POPS A
LITTLE TONIGHT. AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST
WHICH PLACES OUR AREA NEAR THE ENTRANCE REGION. WE WILL ALSO BE
WATCHING FOR A SURFACE FRONT TO BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST,
HOWEVER THIS FEATURE SHOULD STALL WEST OF OUR AREA AS IT BECOMES
HELD UP BY HANNA MOVING NORTHWARD. THE CONTINUED CONCERN IS THE
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT RAPIDLY DEVELOPS WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF HANNA. THIS IS TYPICAL OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS AS THEY
GAIN LATITUDE AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES
/EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION/. THE BULK OF THE COMPUTER
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WELL ON STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
DEVELOPING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO ABOUT 2.5 INCHES POINTS IN
THE DIRECTION OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
THINKING OF THE FLOOD WATCH IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HANNAS WIND FIELD IS QUITE LARGE, HOWEVER DATA AND INFORMATION FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE MAINLY ON THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE CENTER. NOW IF
HANNA CAN ORGANIZE MORE AND DEVELOP A BETTER CORE, THE WIND FIELD
MAY CONTRACT SOME. FOR THE WIND GUIDANCE, WE UTILIZED THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTERS FORECAST HOWEVER AFTER COLLABORATING WITH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES, WE UTILIZED A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN
SUSTAINED WINDS OVER LAND. THE CONCERN WE HAVE IS IF THE STORM
TRACKS A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST, THIS WOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER INLAND. FOR NOW, WE DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REGARDING WINDS OTHER THAN TO BUMP THEM UP A BIT WESTWARD
TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 95. FURTHER WEST, WINDS MAY ACTUALLY DROP OFF
QUITE A BIT AS FRICTION IS ADDED AND THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ALL IN ALL, GUSTS
TO ABOUT 60 MPH AT THE COAST IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.
EVENTUALLY SOME INLAND WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HANNA MOVES THROUGH AND ON BY.
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE, VIA FORECAST SOUNDINGS, INDICATE AT
LEAST SOME INSTABILITY. WHILE THERE WILL BE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHIELD/SURGES ACROSS THE CWA, IT IS NOT CERTAIN
WHETHER THERE WILL BE A LOT OF THUNDER/LIGHTNING. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY COME TO AN EVEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HANNA ACCELERATES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DRIER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND. AS
A RESULT, POPS WILL BE RAMPING DOWNWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE ETA/GFS
MOS ALONG WITH CONTINUITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE ARE EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS HANNA RACES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH OUR REGION
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IT MAY STILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE FOR A TIME
SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HANNA AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS FOR AWHILE. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY, BUT A RETURN
FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATER MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SLIDES TO OUR EAST AND WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT, THE CROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE CHC POPS AS SOME CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONT THEN LOOKS TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
HURRICANE IKE, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MAY STALL FURTHER NORTH THAN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED DUE TO A POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTION TO IKES
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BUILDING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE. GIVEN THE
UPCOMING IMPACTS WITH HANNA IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERM, WE DID NOT
MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THIS TIME FRAME. WE DID MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE AND BLENDED IN SOME 00Z MOSGUIDE DATA
AS WELL.

THAT IS ALL FOR NOW. THANKS TO THE SURROUNDING OFFICES/NHC FOR THE
WEALTH OF COLLABORATION. HAVE A GOOD ONE

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE TWO SOUTHERN TAF SITES DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE PRE-DAWN PERIOD, AND WEVE BASICALLY MAINTAINED
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS BY AND A
LITTLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

AFTER 14Z TODAY, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE VFR
CATEGORY AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS. GIVEN THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK FOR HANNA,
WE START TO BRING IN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD THE END OF THE 06Z
TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS NORTH AND MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH. WELL
FORECAST A DETERIORATION TO IFR CONDITIONS BY THE END THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
TOWARD THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOME BY THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES, BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL WINDS PRESENTLY ARE NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY FEATURE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OUR REGION. A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW.

HANNA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.  THE WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND ROUGHEST SEAS
ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE STORM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE AT THAT TIME.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS SLATED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...
DESPITE CONDITIONS AT 44009 AND THE POSITION OF HANNA INDICATING
THAT THE RIP CURRENT THREAT MIGHT HAVE DIMINISHED TEMPORARILY,
THE REPORT FROM JAY MANN, OUR REGULAR OBSERVER OF THE RIP CURRENT
SITUATION ALONG OUR COAST, HAS LED US TO GO WITH A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AGAIN TODAY.

AS HANNA APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT, RIP CURRENTS WILL AGAIN
BE A STRONG CONCERN ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. THE
THREAT OF RIP CURRENT MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE A BIT FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS HANNA MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM
OUR REGION. HOWEVER, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE SWELLS FROM IKE AROUND THAT
TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ067>071.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062.
NJ...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010-012-015-017>019.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NJZ013-014-016-020>027.
DE...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ430-431-450>455-470.
&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GIGI/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1205 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

PAZ054-055-060>062-061615-
CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
1205 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-017>019-PAZ067>071-061615-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
1205 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016-061615-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-SALEM-
1205 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

NJZ013-020>023-027-061615-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
1205 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-061615-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
1205 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

ANZ430-431-450>455-061615-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1205 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.