Special Marine Warning 25, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
601 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE GROUND TO A WEAK TO MODERATE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TO OUR SOUTH AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503
IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY. STORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED
POPPING IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS IN PENNSYLVANIA. STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

REGARDING TEMPS, WELL LIKELY BUMP MINS UP A BIT FROM CONTINUITY
AS STAT GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE MAIN UPPER
JET NEVER DROPS INTO OUR AREA. THE MOST PRONOUNCED FEELING OF
RELIEF WILL BE NORTHWEST, WHILE ITS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT
COOLER AND DRIER SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK LEE SIDE TROF MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL VORTEX TO
OUR NORTH EXPANDS SOUTHWARD A BIT, BUT THE SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE
WELL CAPPED. AFTER THAT, A BIT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
CLOUDINESS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY NORTH, BUT IT DOESNT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT. OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND
THEN DRIFTING OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. ON TEMPS, GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY WORK
WELL DURING THE DAY. THE MINS ARE BASED ON THE NOTION THAT PARTIAL
DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE
ONE HAND, BUT THAT WE ARE IN THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN RADIATING IS
LIMITED. THESE VALUES ARE ABOVE NORMAL, BUT ARE NOT AS OPPRESSIVE
AS WHAT WEVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. THE AIR MASS ALSO WILL BE DRIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. AT H5, WE START WITH A BUILDING RIDGE THAT CRESTS OVER US
SOMETIME AROUND SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST. A MID LEVEL
TROF BEGINS TO DESCEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, THEN ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST AS THE MID LEVEL TROF DESCENDS TOWARD US.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM STILL ARE FORECAST TO RUN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION AFFECTING KRDG AND KABE
AS OF 600 PM. EXPECT FURTHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PROBABILITIES WILL RANGE FROM LIKELY NORTHWEST TO
MINIMAL CHANCE SOUTHEAST. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
EXCEPT IN THE PRECIPITATION, WHERE THEY WILL VARY TO MVFR/IFR.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO
WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST USHERING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.
DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG OVERNIGHT SINCE WINDS BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE NOT FORECAST TO GO CALM. COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN A FEW LOCATIONS THAT NORMALLY HAVE THE LOWEST
WINDS. CLOUDS WILL SCT OUT WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SKIES
BECOME CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN WEDNESDAY AND KEEP MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

FOR THE OUTLOOK...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. OF COURSE, LOCALIZED MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG
AND HAZE IN THE EARLY MORNING ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD
AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AT SOME POINT, PROBABLY LATER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT BRINGING A SHIFT
IN THE WINDS FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST. AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES IN WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY. THE HIGH
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER TRANQUIL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA SATURDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
COULD APPROACH OR REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW THE CRITERIA
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060>062.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ067>071.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012-013-016-020>023-027.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002-003.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...DELISI/MEOLA
AVIATION...RPW/MEOLA
MARINE...RPW/MEOLA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
603 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ060>062-112215-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
603 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ067>069-112215-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
603 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ054-055-112215-
CARBON-MONROE-
603 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-112215-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
603 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ002-003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ012-013-016-020>023-027-112215-
KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
603 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ070-071-112215-
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
603 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ430-431-450>455-112215-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
603 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
639 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

MDZ008-PAZ067-110000-
CECIL-CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKTON...WEST CHESTER
639 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA...

AT 6:35 PM, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN LANCASTER COUNTY IN
PENNSYLVANIA AND HARFORD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND. THESE
STORMS WERE GENERALLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 30 MPH.

IF THESE STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY, DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. IN ADDITION, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. REMAIN ALERT
FOR APPROACHING THUNDERSTORMS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY ESPECIALLY IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

GORSE

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