River Flood Warning 2, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

000 
WGUS81 KPHI 132222
FLSPHI
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY
522 PM EST WED FEB 13 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...
 
  PERKIOMEN CREEK AT GRATERFORD AFFECTING MONTGOMERY COUNTY 

...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE PERKIOMEN
CREEK...

PAC091-140807-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080214T0807Z/
/GRAP1.1.ER.080213T1900Z.080213T2300Z.080214T0207Z.NO/
522 PM EST WED FEB 13 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE PERKIOMEN CREEK AT GRATERFORD.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 5:15 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE PERKIOMEN RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.2
  FEET THIS EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...PENITENTIARY BRIDGE IS CLOSED. FLOODING
  BEGINS IN COLLEGVILLE. HOUSES ON THE RIGHT BANK IN GRATERFORD TAKE
  ON WATER.

$$

                   FLD      OBSERVED          FORECAST
 LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME       CREST

PERKIOMEN CREEK
  GRATERFORD       11.0   12.05  WED 5 PM    12.2  WED 6 PM 

&&

000 
WGUS81 KPHI 140351
FLSPHI
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY
1051 PM EST WED FEB 13 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...
 
  PERKIOMEN CREEK AT GRATERFORD AFFECTING MONTGOMERY COUNTY

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...
 
  NESHAMINY CREEK AT LANGHORNE AFFECTING BUCKS COUNTY 

...MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON THE NESHAMINY CREEK...

PAC017-141100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080214T1100Z/
/LNGP1.1.ER.080213T2050Z.080214T0300Z.080214T0500Z.NO/
1051 PM EST WED FEB 13 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE NESHAMINY CREEK AT LANGHORNE.
* INTO THE OVERNIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE NESHAMINY CREEK AT LANGHORN WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD
  STAGE OVERNIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...AT THIS LEVEL SOME HOMES IN THE AREA OF
  THE LANGHORNE GAGE ARE EVACUATED.

$$

PAC091-140421-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080214T0807Z/
/GRAP1.1.ER.080213T1900Z.080213T2315Z.080214T0303Z.NO/
1051 PM EST WED FEB 13 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE PERKIOMEN CREEK AT GRATERFORD
* AT 10:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET. 
* CRESTED...NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...THE FIRST EVACUATIONS BEGIN IN SWENKSVILLE 
  UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE.

$$

                   FLD      OBSERVED          FORECAST
 LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME       CREST

PERKIOMEN CREEK
  GRATERFORD       11.0   10.63  WED 10 PM    CRESTED 

NESHAMINY CREEK
  LANGHORNE         9.0    9.90  WED 10 PM    OVERNIGHT

&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1204 PM EST WED FEB 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME WRAPPED UP IN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS EAST OF NEW JERSEY DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST AND PASS SOUTH
OF OUR COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE BY EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
THEN EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE GULF COAST, THEN TRACK NORTHEAST
TOWARD OUR REGION FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE. VIRTUALLY ALL
AREAS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES. THE WARM FRONT SEEMS TO HAVE STALLED JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, WITH A 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY
ACROSS IT. TEMPERATURES ON THE SOUTH AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE FRONT
ARE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60, WHILE THE TEMPERATURES ON THE OTHER
SIDE ARE IN THE 30S. WINDS ARE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST, AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE 00Z GFS WAS WAY OVERDONE ON THE PRECIPITATION FOR THIS
EVENING AND WE DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN/NAM/ECMWF
SOLNS, WHICH DRY OUT THE REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY. WE KEPT THE
POPS HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS WE COULDNT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE SECOND COASTAL LOW. LOOKING AT THE
INSENTROPIC LEVELS WE WERE UNABLE TO FIND ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND NJ. THEREFORE, WE
DECIDED TO GO WITH AN INCH OR LESS IN THESE AREAS SINCE THE GFS
SHOWED MARGINAL LIFT, EVEN THOUGH THE NAM DID NOT SHOW ANY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST IN THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED. EARLY IN THE EXTENDED HOWEVER, WE START OFF
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY WITH A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING AND/OR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTS
THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA, THOUGH THEY HAVE A SIMILAR GRASP OF
THE OVERALL SITUATION. ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON
SUNDAY, WHILE A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ALONG
THE GULF COAST. THE SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO TAKE CHARGE AND
MOVE INTO OUR AREA, BUT THIS IS WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES TAKE
PLACE. THE CANADIAN IS MUCH FASTER, BRINGING THE LOW THROUGH BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER, BRINGING THE LOW THROUGH
BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS RIGHT IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO,
BRINGING IT THROUGH AROUND MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY,
WE HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, THROUGH IF YOU TAKE THE AVERAGE, SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FITS ABOUT RIGHT. THIS IS STILL NEARLY A WEEK OUT, SO
MODELS SHOULD GET A BETTER GRASP AS THE DAYS PROGRESS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY EXTREME
EITHER WAY, HIGHS OR LOWS, BUT THEY WILL BE COOLER ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES WITH RAIN,
FOG, AND LOW CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED
BETWEEN PHL AND ACY, AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
WESTWARD AT THIS TIME. IF ANYTHING, IT MAY BARELY CROSS THE
DELAWARE RIVER, BUT THIS IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT. AFTER A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CIG AND THEN VFR CIG WITH
UNRESTRICTED VSBY OVERNIGHT.

BEYOND THE TAF VALID PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW WOULD
BE NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS TODAY BUT GALES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE OCEAN FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE ON DEL BAY.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE INTENSIFYING AS IT HEADS NE TO THE EAST
OF THE COAST TONIGHT. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN. THESE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF AND WITH THE
FRONT BACK TO SCA SPEEDS FRIDAY AND GUSTIER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS FROM THE NW. ON SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
AND ON TO THE EAST ALLOWING WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN SUBSIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
ADDITIONAL QPF AMTS OF ONE INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS. THIS MUCH RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME,
COMBINED WITH SNOW/ICE MELT AND RAPID RUNOFF DUE TO FROZEN GROUND,
IS ALREADY CAUSING FLOODING, AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL
FLOODING. THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-067>071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-
     015>019.
DE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...LR/MEOLA/MPD
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...LR
AVIATION...STAUBER
MARINE...STAUBER
HYDROLOGY...MEOLA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1157 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008

DEZ001-NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019-PAZ060>062-067>071-141100-
NEW CASTLE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-
SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
1157 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ013-014-020>027-PAZ054-055-
141100-
KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-
TALBOT-CAROLINE-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-
1157 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-141100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1157 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
   GALE WARNING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
 GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-141100-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
1157 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.