Heavy Snow Warning 1, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 131558
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1058 AM EST SUN JAN 13 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT 
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ORGANIZED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. THIS STORM IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND BE EAST OF THE JERSEY SHORE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS IT INTENSIFIES. THE STORM WILL THEN CONTINUE
NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON, PULLING AWAY FROM OUR AREA.

NJZ007-009-010-132200-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0002.080114T0200Z-080114T2000Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.HS.W.0001.080114T0200Z-080114T2000Z/
WARREN-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE
1058 AM EST SUN JAN 13 2008

...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM
EST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A HEAVY
SNOW WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM
EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW, THEN QUICKLY
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW MAY FALL
HEAVILY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT
DURING MONDAY MORNING, WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW ANTICIPATED. EVEN THOUGH SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE START
FOR MANY PLACES, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
TYPE WITH THIS STORM AS THE AIR MASS COOLS SUFFICIENTLY. ALSO,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT IN THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST.

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE
TRAVEL DANGEROUS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR
YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER
STORM.

$$

NJZ001-008-132200-
/O.CON.KPHI.HS.W.0001.080114T0200Z-080114T2000Z/
SUSSEX-MORRIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...MORRISTOWN
1058 AM EST SUN JAN 13 2008

...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
3 PM EST MONDAY...

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
3 PM EST MONDAY. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING, CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOME INTERMITTENT DURING MONDAY MORNING.
THE SNOW MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, WITH A STORM TOTAL
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ANTICIPATED. EVEN THOUGH SOME RAIN COULD
OCCUR AT THE START IN A FEW PLACES, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS STORM AS THE AIR MASS COOLS SUFFICIENTLY.

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE
TRAVEL DANGEROUS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR
YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER
STORM.

$$

PAZ054-055-061-062-132200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SN.Y.0001.080114T0200Z-080114T2000Z/
CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
1058 AM EST SUN JAN 13 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST
MONDAY.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES. HOWEVER, THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR EVEN BEGIN AS LIGHT
RAIN IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY. THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO COOL
SUFFICIENTLY EVERYWHERE, THEREFORE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS STORM. THE SNOW WILL THEN BECOME
INTERMITTENT DURING MONDAY MORNING. A STORM TOTAL OF 2 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS PROBABLY OCCURRING
ACROSS EASTERN NORTHAMPTON AND MONROE COUNTIES. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT IN THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO
OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.

$$

NJZ012-013-015-PAZ069-132200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SN.Y.0001.080114T0200Z-080114T2000Z/
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...
DOYLESTOWN
1058 AM EST SUN JAN 13 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST
MONDAY. 

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING, THEN
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES BEFORE DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO COOL
SUFFICIENTLY, THEREFORE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS STORM. THE SNOW WILL THEN BECOME
INTERMITTENT DURING MONDAY MORNING. A STORM TOTAL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY SHARP
GRADIENT IN THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MONMOUTH COUNTY.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.

$$

GORSE/KRUZDLO

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 132107
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
407 PM EST SUN JAN 13 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ORGANIZED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. THIS STORM IS THEN ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND BE EAST OF THE JERSEY SHORE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS IT INTENSIFIES. THE STORM WILL THEN
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON, PULLING AWAY FROM OUR
AREA.

NJZ001-007>010-140530-
/O.EXT.KPHI.HS.W.0001.080114T0200Z-080114T1700Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE
407 PM EST SUN JAN 13 2008

...HEAVY SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
12 PM EST MONDAY...

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING, CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOME INTERMITTENT DURING MONDAY MORNING. THE
SNOW MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 5
TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS SUSSEX AND MORRIS COUNTIES
AND 4 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS WARREN, HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET COUNTIES.
EVEN THOUGH SOME RAIN COULD OCCUR AT THE START IN A FEW PLACES, SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS STORM AS
THE AIR MASS COOLS SUFFICIENTLY.

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE
TRAVEL DANGEROUS. MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR LOOKS TO BE VERY
HAZARDOUS WITH SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADWAYS. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.

$$

PAZ054-055-061-062-140530-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SN.Y.0001.080114T0200Z-080114T1700Z/
CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
407 PM EST SUN JAN 13 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM
EST MONDAY...

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES. HOWEVER, THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR EVEN BEGIN AS LIGHT
RAIN IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO COOL
SUFFICIENTLY EVERYWHERE, THEREFORE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS STORM. THE SNOW WILL THEN BECOME
INTERMITTENT DURING MONDAY MORNING. A STORM TOTAL OF 2 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS PROBABLY OCCURRING
ACROSS EASTERN NORTHAMPTON AND MONROE COUNTIES. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT IN THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO
OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
THE LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.

$$

NJZ012-013-015-PAZ069-140530-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SN.Y.0001.080114T0200Z-080114T1700Z/
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...
DOYLESTOWN
407 PM EST SUN JAN 13 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM
EST MONDAY...

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING, AND
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW, THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING, AND COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES BEFORE DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY, THEREFORE
SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH
THIS STORM. THE SNOW WILL THEN BECOME INTERMITTENT DURING MONDAY
MORNING. A STORM TOTAL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT IN THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS MONMOUTH COUNTY.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
THE LATEST ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.

$$

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 140715
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
215 AM EST MON JAN 14 2008

...WINTER STORM IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION...


NJZ001-007>010-140815-
/O.CAN.KPHI.HS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080114T1700Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE
215 AM EST MON JAN 14 2008

...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
HEAVY SNOW WARNING. 

THE SNOW HAS BEEN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. THEREFORE...THE
HEAVY SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

NJZ012-013-015-PAZ054-055-061-062-069-140815-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SN.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-080114T1700Z/
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...
DOYLESTOWN
215 AM EST MON JAN 14 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
SNOW ADVISORY. 

THE SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN
REMAINING. THEREFORE...THE SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

VM/PO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
916 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS NEAR CAPE HATTERAS ON SUNDAY
EVENING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OUT TO SEA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, PASSING NEAR CAPE COD ON MONDAY. THE STORM IS
ANTICIPATED TO REACH NOVA SCOTIA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND IT WILL LIKELY DRIFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER
COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AS THE PINE BARRENS OF NJ AND
THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX, NJ HAVE RADIATED QUITE WELL SO FAR THIS
EVENING. RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES, WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS SNEAKING
IN, AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING.

THE AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD, SO WERE EXPECTING LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.  IT SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE EAST, REACHING THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  OUT AHEAD OF THE FEATURE, LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE PASSING OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON SUNDAY EVENING.  AS THE SHORT
WAVE NEARS, THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PASS ABOUT 100 MILES OFF THE COASTS ON DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS AS THOUGHT IT WILL BE WASHED OUT BETWEEN
THE SHORT WAVE TO ITS SOUTH AND ANOTHER ONE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF
MANITOBA.

PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD UP INTO DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND EARLY ON SUNDAY EVENING, THEN THE PRECIP WILL MOVE UP INTO
NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.  INITIALLY, THE AIR MASS IN
PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS A MIX A
FARTHER INLAND.  AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY, IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DRAW SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
ALSO, AS PRECIP RATES INCREASE COLD AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX DOWN
FROM ALOFT.  AS A RESULT, WERE EXPECTING THE PRECIP TO BECOME
MOSTLY SNOW IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, THE POCONOS AND THE LEHIGH
VALLEY.  EVEN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN, THERE MAY BE A MIX OR CHANGE TO
SNOW LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

BASED ON THE EXPECTED LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH IN
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUSSEX
COUNTY AND MORRIS COUNTY WHERE WERE ANTICIPATING 4 TO 7 INCHES OF
SNOW.  SUSSEX AND MORRIS ARE THE ONLY TWO COUNTIES THAT MEET THEIR
WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA.  FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH, WERE
FORECASTING 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE COUNTIES OF WARREN, HUNTERDON AND
SOMERSET, AND 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE POCONOS, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.  LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH COULD
RECEIVE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW LATE IN THE
EVENT.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH CLOUDS AND LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP ARE LIKELY ON
MONDAY AS WE GET TRAPPED IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE STORM.  AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST,
MORE CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

HERE IS THE LOCAL EXPERIMENTAL SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES CHART FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING MORNING.

THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS POTENTIAL
STORM.  THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

====================================================================

           PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
         THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)

====================================================================
STATION      2IN      4IN      6IN      9IN     12IN
====================================================================

MPO          60       30       15        5       <5
ABE          60       30       15        5       <5
PHL          35       15        5       <5       <5
ACY          <5       <5       <5       <5       <5
GED          <5       <5       <5       <5       <5

====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.

STATION IDENTIFIERS:

MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - ATLANTIC CITY, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED UP NEAR CHURCHILL, MANITOBA THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT.  THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY,
FINALLY BRINGING SOME CLEARING IN ITS WAKE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.  WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANOTHER COASTAL
STORM DURING THAT TIME, OR SIMPLY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, REMAINS TO
BE SEEN.  NEVERTHELESS, THE TREND IS FOR A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO DIG
OVER THE EASTERN STATES DURING THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE TERMINALS WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS IN
THE MIX.  THE VFR CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL PERSIST BEYOND 18Z
TOMORROW, WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO IFR TOMORROW NIGHT.  THE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN
NORTHEASTERLY TOMORROW MORNING.  THEY MIGHT GO EAST FOR A SHORT TIME
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING.  AS THE COASTAL LOW PASSES
EAST OF THE REGION, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS AREA WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF TOMORROW.

LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  THE STORM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES EAST OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY.  SCAS WERE POSTED FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  GALES
WERE POSTED FOR THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

ONCE THE LOW PASSES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY A SECOND
WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE ON
TUESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ001-008.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450-
     451.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ450-
     451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO
MARINE...KRUZDLO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2008

NJZ001-008-131100-
SUSSEX-MORRIS-
402 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR SNOWFALL REPORTS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NJZ007-009-010-131100-
WARREN-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
402 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS MOSTLY SNOW AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AS THE
LOW INTENSIFIES AND PULLS OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. ANY
SHIFT IN THE TRACK WILL EFFECT THE SNOW TOTALS. PLEASE MONITOR
FURTHER UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR SNOWFALL REPORTS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

PAZ054-055-061-062-131100-
CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
402 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS MOSTLY SNOW AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AS THE
LOW INTENSIFIES AND PULLS OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. ANY
SHIFT IN THE TRACK WILL EFFECT THE SNOW TOTALS. PLEASE MONITOR
FURTHER UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR SNOWFALL REPORTS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NJZ012-013-015-PAZ069-131100-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-BUCKS-
402 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND PULLS OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. ANY SHIFT IN THE
TRACK WILL EFFECT THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. PLEASE MONITOR
FURTHER UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR SNOWFALL REPORTS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NJZ014-017>020-027-PAZ060-067-068-070-071-131100-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
402 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND PULLS OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. ANY SHIFT IN THE
TRACK WILL EFFECT THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. PLEASE MONITOR
FURTHER UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR SNOWFALL REPORTS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021>026-131100-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
402 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS MOSTLY RAIN.
HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. ANY SHIFT IN THE TRACK WILL EFFECT THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. PLEASE MONITOR FURTHER UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ431-452>455-131100-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
402 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450-451-131100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
402 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-131100-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
402 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.