Coastal Flood Advisory 11, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
106 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
IE...ALL PCPN HAS ENDED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AS
SOME CLOUDS SKIRT THE AREA DUE TO LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE BEEN LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES AS
MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LOWERING TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FOR BERKS COUNTY AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY IN
PENNSYLVANIA, AS WELL AS WARREN, HUNTERDON, AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN
NEW JERSEY FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW AREAS IN THESE
COUNTIES THAT MAY DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK, BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT
IT TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. SOME OTHER PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY
MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST TONIGHT, BUT WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SEEING FROST ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED,
SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS POINT. WE HAVE DECIDED
TO KEEP THE 30 POPS THAT WERE IN THE FORECAST BEFORE, BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE LOWERED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
FORECASTS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AGAIN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THEN REBOUND CLOSER TO
NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WHILE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS INTENSIFIES AS IT HEADS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW
WILL STAY WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
LOW WILL BRING IN SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS TO THE N/W OF PHL THIS EVENING
WITH STRATOCU AROUND 4 THSD FT FROM PNE/PHL/ILG SOUTH AND EAST.
AFTER DARK, SOME OF THE STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE NEAR PNE/PHL/ILG AND
BE REPLACED BY ALTOCU. BETWEEN 05 AND 10 UTC, THE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, ACY/MIV SHOULD SEE STRATOCU CIGS
REMAIN UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. VSBY WILL
REMAIN UNRESTRICTED.

ON SUNDAY, SCATTERED STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
SUNSHINE.

OUTLOOK...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL
INTENSIFY THROUGH SUNDAY CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE MARINE
AREA. THIS INTENSIFICATION COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ON WARMER WATER
WILL ALLOW SUSTAINED WINDS TO REACH GALE FORCE ON THE OCEAN EAST
OF DELAWARE. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND OVER LOWER DELAWARE BAY,
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD START TO DECREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

THERE SHOULD BE LESS WINDS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME ON MONDAY, BUT A
COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ060>062.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ007>009.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

MARINE...STAUBER

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