Areal Flood Warning 8, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
417 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL RAPIDLY MAKE ITS WAY THOUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROCHES BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. AS THE
STORM MOVES THROUGH, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM,
BEFORE RAPIDLY TAPPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE TOMORROW, ALL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE STORM RACES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOVING THROUGH COULD CAUSE
SOME PROBLEMS. WITH PW VALUES OVER 2.5 INCHES, SOME OF THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING, AND COME DOWN IN A
VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. DRIVERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR HIGH WATER
ON LOCAL ROADWAYS DURING ANY OF THESE DOWNPOURS. THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING, TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING, AND WIND ADVISROY ALL
REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE STORM IS STILL PRODUCING SOME STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AS IT IS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND COULD GIVE OUR
AREA SOME STRONG WINDS AS WE GO THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON TROPICAL STORM
HANNA, PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER TROPICAL STORM HANNA MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT, SUNDAY SHOULD
PROVIDE A FAIRLY NICE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS TO
START THE DAY OFF, BUT THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUR DURING THE
DAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PREVENT
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE ONGOING SITUATION RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
HANNA, THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WE ONCE
AGAIN USED HPC GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT AND MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY,
MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL WELL OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT THE REGION AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA.
MVFR CONDS PREVAIL BUT DROP TO IFR AND LOCALLY TO LIFR IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE STORM MOVES
NORTH OF OUR AREA LATER THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE WORST TO BE OVER
BY 10 TO 11 PM AND ALL PRECIPITATION TO HAVE ENDED BY 2 AM.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS GOING TO SCT AT THE TAF SITES.
BLUSTERY SE TO E WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NE, N, AND THEN NW
EXCEPT FOR ACY, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE JUST EAST OF THE CENTER.
AT ACY, THE WINDS WILL GO FROM SE TO S TO SW AND THEN TO WNW.
A SPEED WIND SHEAR IS IN THE TAFS, EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR NW SITES RDG
AND ABE. THE SHEAR WILL ALSO END DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND HANNA
WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY,
WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN WITH ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF HANNA THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CORRECT, HANNA WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NJ AND REACH THE COAST SOMEWHERE NEAR LONG BEACH ISLAND.
THIS WILL PRESENT A VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIO DEPENDING ON WHETHER
ONE IS NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE STORM. NORTH OF THE STORM, WINDS
WILL GO FROM SE TO E TO NE TO N AND THEN NW. SOUTH OF THE STORM,
THEYLL GO FROM SE TO S TO SW AND THEN TO WNW. WIND GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 45 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 55 KT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT ON THE OCEAN AND SURF WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 9 FT WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AFTER THE STORM
CENTER PASSES.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE STORM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AT THAT TIME. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
IS SLATED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY, AS HANNA APPROACHES, SHOULD SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE STORM MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST
AND FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. HOWEVER, SWELLS FROM IKE MAY BEGIN
TO ARRIVE ABOUT THAT TIME. EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR, THE EXPECTED
NORTHEAST FETCH MIGHT INCREASE RIP CURRENTS AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING...
WE ARE EXTREMELY FORTUNATE THAT HANNA IS ARRIVING DURING THE NEAP
TIDE CYCLE. ALSO, THE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TODAY ALONG THE
OCEAN-FRONT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OR ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING.
THERE IS A BETTER COINCIDENCE OF WINDS AND TIDES IN THE BAYS AND THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER THAN ON THE OCEAN. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WHERE A
SURGE OF 1 TO AROUND 3 FEET IS EXPECTED. THIS COULD PRODUCE MINOR
FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. DRAINAGE FLOODING ON THE BACK BAYS COULD
ALSO OCCUR AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
OCCURRING. LASTLY, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MIGHT PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
ALONG TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER BECAUSE OF THE FRESHWATER
RUNOFF.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
     067>071.
     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ067>071.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>015-
     017>020-022-025>027.
     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ001-007>010-012-015-017>019.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ016-021-023-024.
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NJZ013-014-016-020>027.
DE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
     020.
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ430-431-450>455-470.
&&

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...RPW
MARINE...RPW
RIP CURRENTS...RPW
TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING...RPW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1136 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

PAZ054-055-060>062-071545-
CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
1136 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-017>019-PAZ067>071-071545-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
1136 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016-071545-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-SALEM-
1136 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ013-020>023-027-071545-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
1136 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-071545-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
1136 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ430-431-450>455-071545-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1136 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH AS TROPICAL STORM HANNA MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.