Areal Flood Advisory 29, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1229 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THURSDAY BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED OUT OF PA AND WESTERN NEW
JERSEY AND IS NOW HEADING TOWARD THE COAST. WHILE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGHOUT THE CWA...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS SHIFTED
TOWARD THE COAST. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM ELSWHERE. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT AS
WELL GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
I EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT WITH TSTM
ACTIVITY MOVING EAST WITH THE FRONT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BRINGS COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
THE FLOW BECOMES NE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE DRY AIR
COULD TEMPORARILY BE DLAD THERE AND SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER INTO WED
MORNING. ONCE THE DRY AIR ARRIVES, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS AIRMASS IS VERY COOL AS
IDENTIFIED BY THE 1000-850 THICKNESSES OF 1340 NORTH TO 1375 SOUTH
WED AM. THE MAV MINS LOOK OK OR SLIGHTLY HIGH CONSIDERING THE CAA
LATE TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY, IT WILL FEEL SOMEWHAT LIKE AUTUMN AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOW 70S WHILE REMAINING THE MID
TO UPPER 60S IN THE POCONOS. THE LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE 40S, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S EXTREME SOUTH AND
ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPS COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH
READINGS SIMILAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH THAT WILL HAVE BROUGHT THE COOL DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA
FOR WED AND THURSDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION DURING FRIDAY. THEN A SERIES OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AND STALL THROUGH
MONDAY, MEANING POSSIBLE SHOWERS EACH DAY. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
INCLUDED ONLY FOR SUNDAY AS THAT IS THE TIMEFRAME WHEN THE AIRMASS
LOOKS WARMEST AND MOST UNSTABLE. OTHERWISE, THE HPC FCST HAS BEEN
ACCEPTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KRDG
AND KABE AND IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR AT KTTN, KPNE, KPHL, KILG.
EXPECT THOSE AIRPORTS TO SEE THUNDER, REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS AND
WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 35KT AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH. THEN THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION, WITH GENERALLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL POSSIBLY A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WITH THE FRONT
LATER TODAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL STABILIZE THINGS AND LESSEN THE CHANCES FOR LATER
CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
AFTER FROPA AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE OUTLOOK BEYOND 12Z WEDNESDAY, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD
TO VFR FLYING WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS
SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO APPROACH FRIDAY, WITH LOWER CONDITIONS AT
TIMES POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS PERSISTING
SATURDAY AND MAYBE EVEN INTO SUNDAY. TROPICAL WEATHER MAY INVADE
THE AREA WITH THE REMNANTS OF IKE EARLY NEXT WEEK, IF THE 00Z GFS
CAN BE BELIEVED THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SHARP LATE SUMMER (OR EARLY AUTUMN, IF YOU PREFER) COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PASS OFF THE COAST
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. THE NAM 925 WINDS ARE A TOUCH STRONGER THAN
THE GFS. WELL SIDE WITH THE GFS, BUT EVEN SO, WELL MENTION A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN TODAY.

WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY, WAVEWATCH HAS BUILT SEAS
TO 5 FEET. ITS TRUE THAT THE GRADIENT SEEMS TO RELAX IN THE
AFTERNOON A BIT, BUT WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS, WAVES MAY MAKE IT TO 5 FEET.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPORT MARINE ACTIVITIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND PROBABLY INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/STAUBER/JJM
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...NIERENBERG
MARINE...NIERENBERG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1003 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-008>010-012-015>019-PAZ067>071-091500-
BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-
HUNTERDON NJ-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-
NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-SALEM NJ-
SOMERSET NJ-SUSSEX NJ-
1003 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BUCKS...BURLINGTON...CAMDEN...
CECIL...CHESTER...DELAWARE...GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...MERCER...
MIDDLESEX...MONTGOMERY...MORRIS...NEW CASTLE...PHILADELPHIA...
SALEM...SOMERSET AND SUSSEX COUNTIES...

AT 959 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST
OF PATERSON TO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELKTON...MOVING EAST AT ABOUT
30 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR TROUT LAKE...NEWTOWN SQUARE
AROUND 1015 AM...WASHINGTON CROSSING...TEMPLE UNIVERSITY AROUND 1030
AM...WISSINOMING...TACONY AROUND 1045 AM...EDINBURG AND WILLINGBORO
AROUND 1100 AM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER
TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES.

MPD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1052 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-NJZ010-012>022-025>027-PAZ069>071-091645-
ATLANTIC NJ-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-CECIL MD-COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-
COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
GLOUCESTER NJ-KENT MD-KENT DE-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-SALEM NJ-
SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
1052 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC...BUCKS...BURLINGTON...
CAMDEN...CECIL...CUMBERLAND...DELAWARE...GLOUCESTER...KENT...
MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH...NEW CASTLE...OCEAN...PHILADELPHIA...
SALEM AND SOMERSET COUNTIES...

AT 1050 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MANHATTEN TO 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIDDLETOWN...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR WINDSOR...MOUNT LAUREL...
JACKSONVILLE...CROSSWICKS AROUND 1100 AM...SPRINGDALE...
MORGANVILLE...LUMBERTON...GREENTREE AROUND 1105 AM...MARLBORO AND
MANALAPAN AROUND 1110 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
IF YOU ARE DRIVING AND ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROADWAY...PLEASE DO NOT
TRY TO CROSS IT.  FIND ANOTHER ROUTE.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THERE ARE AREAS OF INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM SOME OF THESE STORMS. DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MPD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1125 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PARADISE VALLEY         41.12N 75.28W
09/09/2008                   MONROE             PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AT THE CORNER OF KOERNERS ROAD AND RT. 390

0900 AM     TSTM WND DMG     READING                 40.34N 75.93W
09/09/2008                   BERKS              PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN BERKS COUNTY

0948 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HIGH BRIDGE             40.67N 74.90W
09/09/2008                   HUNTERDON          NJ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON CHARLESTON ROAD IN BETHLEHEM TOWNSHIP

1106 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E SOUTH PLAINFIELD    40.58N 74.32W
09/09/2008                   MIDDLESEX          NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GARDEN STATE PARKWAY INUNDATED WITH WATER.

&&

JJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PARADISE VALLEY         41.12N 75.28W
09/09/2008                   MONROE             PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AT THE CORNER OF KOERNERS ROAD AND RT. 390

0900 AM     TSTM WND DMG     READING                 40.34N 75.93W
09/09/2008                   BERKS              PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN BERKS COUNTY

0948 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HIGH BRIDGE             40.67N 74.90W
09/09/2008                   HUNTERDON          NJ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON CHARLESTON ROAD IN BETHLEHEM TOWNSHIP

1106 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E SOUTH PLAINFIELD    40.58N 74.32W
09/09/2008                   MIDDLESEX          NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GARDEN STATE PARKWAY INUNDATED WITH WATER.

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SOMERDALE               39.85N 75.02W
09/09/2008                   CAMDEN             NJ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSED AT SOMERDALE ROAD AND WHITE HORSE PIKE

&&

JJM

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