Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
252 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THURSDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF SHOWERS
FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS
EVENING WILL BRING A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. SHOWERS WILL BE VERY
WIDELY SCATTERED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD UPPER LOW WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPRERATURES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO THE HEATING OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DISTRICT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THURSDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP A RISK
OF SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT MVFR VSBYS IN BR WITH ISOLATED IFR IN FG EARLY THIS MORNING.
ANY BR OR FG THAT FORMS WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z. SREF, NAM AND NMM
WRF SIM RADAR LOOP ALL POINT TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON IN CONVERGENCE ZONE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CAPE VALUES RUNNING 1000-1400 J/KG WITH MAX LIFT PRE-FROPA.
MVFR/SCT IFR CONDS IN/NEAR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WND GUSTS
50KTS+ POSSIBLE IN SOME STORMS.

MODEL RUNS SHOW SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH COLD MID LEVEL UPPER LOW
HOLDING. A FEW PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MORE SETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHORT-LIVED BOUTS OF IFR THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
450 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-300900-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-GREENE-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-
BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
450 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORMS WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

PAZ023-030-291730-
INDIANA PA-WESTMORELAND PA-
1228 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS...

THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
WESTMORELAND AND INDIANA...

AT 1223 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGH
INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 3 MILES EAST OF BAGGALEY...OR ABOUT 4
MILES SOUTH OF DERRY...MOVING EAST AT 29 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  DARLINGTON...DERRY...LATROBE...LAUREL MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...
  LIGONIER...BAGGALEY...HOSTETTER...LAUGHLINTOWN...ATLANTIC...BALDWIN
  FURNACE...BELLS...BRADENVILLE...BURDS CROSSING...BUTTERMILK FALLS
  AND CALIFORNIA FURNACE

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
LIGHTNING WILL PRESENT AN ADDITIIONAL THREAT.

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1243 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

PAZ007-008-013-014-022-291745-
ARMSTRONG PA-BUTLER PA-LAWRENCE PA-MERCER PA-VENANGO PA-
1243 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS...

THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
ARMSTRONG...BUTLER...VENANGO...MERCER AND LAWRENCE...

AT 1240 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGH
INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW CASTLE...
MOVING EAST AT 53 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  BRADYS BEND...CLINTONVILLE...EAU CLAIRE...EMLENTON...ENTERPRISE...
  GROVE CITY...HARLANSBURG...HOOKER...NEW CASTLE...NEW WILMINGTON...
  SLIPPERY ROCK...ALTMAN...AMSTERDAM...ANNANDALE AND ANNISVILLE

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
LIGHTNING WILL PRESENT AN ADDITIIONAL THREAT.

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA.

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