Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
711 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...

THE LOW WHICH BROUGHT ALL OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING IN NORTHERN
COUNTIES...AND PROBING CALLS DO NOT INDICATE ONGOING PROBLEMS...SO
HAVE ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH
GOING THROUGH 1 AM AS POSTED...WITH HEAVIER BACK EDGE OF PRECIP
NOW ENTERING WESTERN FORECAST AREA. CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW STRIKES
IN THIS AREA SO HAVE ADDED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDER THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE THERMAL PROFILE COOLS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN
THE COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

SHRTWV WL GENERATE A CHANCE FOR MORE LGT PCPN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH PROJECT ANOTHER STRONG LOW MOVING TOWARD UPPER
OHIO VALLEY OR MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. TRACK WILL DETERMINE
RAIN OR SNOW POTENTIAL WITH CURRENT RANGE OF SOLNS SHOWING MUCH
VARIABILITY. CURRENT FORECAST WL LEAN TWD SNOW BUT LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN SOLNS PREVENTS ANYTHING MORE THAN CHC NMBRS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SFC LOW MOVING UP OH RIVER VALLEY.  LOW CIGS MOST LOCATIONS XCPT FOR
HOLE OVR ERN PART OF CWA.  AS LOW PASSES OVR CWA BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z,
WINDS WILL BACK WITH COLDER AIR BEHIND.  NEARLY ALL TSRA WILL REMAIN
S OF AREA.  PCPN CHANGEOVER WEST TO EAST FROM 6-11Z. CIGS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WED.  NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FRI AFTN.  MOSTLY SN WITH SOME MIX
IN THE S.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-
     057>059-068-069.
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-
     020>023-029>032.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
654 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

PAZ007>009-013-060000-
MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-
654 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND
WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ014>016-020>023-029>032-
WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-060000-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-BUTLER-CLARION-
JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-
WESTMORELAND-GREENE-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-
MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
654 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
913 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

PAZ021-029-030-050315-
ALLEGHENY PA-WASHINGTON PA-WESTMORELAND PA-
913 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS...

THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
WASHINGTON...ALLEGHENY AND WESTMORELAND...

AT 909 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGH
INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OAKDALE TO
18 MILES SOUTH OF DONEGAL...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OAKDALE TO
3 MILES EAST OF OHIOPYLE...STATIONARY. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  ELFINWILD...ALLISON PARK...CURRY...BALDWIN AND NORTH BRADDOCK

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.

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