River Flood Warning 6, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
246 AM EST SAT FEB 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW. BEHIND THE FRONT...LOCALLY VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...ALONG WITH
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES NEARING ZERO. MILDER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WISCONSIN
INTO THE MID-SOUTH. LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDS AS FAR
EAST AS WESTERN OHIO...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AT CURRENT TRENDS
PRECIP WILL REACH EASTERN OHIO AROUND SUNRISE...EXTENDING INTO
WESTERN PA AND POINTS EAST THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN LATE MORNING.
FOR THE PIT METRO...PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START...OTHERWISE
RAIN. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH OF I-80 TO THE 45-50 SOUTH OF
I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OHIO
DURING THE EVENING...AND ACROSS WESTERN PA OVERNIGHT. RAIN
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING. WITH FLOW W OR
W/NW BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH VERY STRONG FLOW...THINK
THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS MAY BE FRAGMENTED AND WELL NORTH
OF I-80...THUS THINK ADVISORY ACCUMS UNLIKELY. WILL USE
1-3 INCHES FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80 AND THE RIDGES...WITH
PERHAPS AN INCH FOR MOST OTHER AREAS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH. IN ADDITION...BOTH NAM/GFS IN
AGREEMENT WITH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE. THINK SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE SURFACE IN GUSTS
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OHIO...AND ACROSS WESTERN PA
SUNDAY. THUS...WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR ALL AREAS. SNOW
WILL DIMINISH BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE. THIS WILL MAKE THE OTHER CONCERN THE COLD. WITH SOME
CLEARING...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND THE COLDEST AIR BUILDING
THINK TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY BY MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS
APPROACHING ZERO ALONG THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL WIND TO BRING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO -10
TO -15F. WILL HOLD OFF ON AN WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY...WILL ISSUE A SPS
AND HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES THE AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO
RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE NEXT
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
WITH SNOW SHOWERS/WINTRY MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. CEILINGS
AROUND 9000 FEET WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR 3500 FEET BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES IN
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT LATE THIS EVENING...THEN VISIBILITIES
LOWERING TO IFR AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT WEST WINDS TO GUST TO 40 KT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST
PA AND ALONG THE RIDGES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING
IMPROVEMENT TOWARD VFR. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029>032.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ001-002-004-012.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ003-021>023-
     041.

&&

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