Tornado Warning 48, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
135 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO WEST WILL MOVE EAST THRU FA TONIGHT. BEST SVR
CHANCE DURING DAYTIME HEATING PM/EVENING HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE NW 1/2 FA...MOVING THRU SE HALF W/O AID OF
DIURNAL PEAK INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT. PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN
THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS & LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

BOTH GFS/NAM MODEL BOUNDARY THRU MOST IF NOT ALL FA BY 12Z
TUE...BUT WE LINGERED SMALL MOS POP SUGGESTED SLGT CHC IN THE FAR
SE OF THE PENNYRILE THRU EARLY TUE AM. DRIER MEAN RELATIVE AIR
WORKS DOWN THE COLUMN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HIGH
MOVING ACROSS LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY IN THE WAKE SO SUBSIDENCE
SHUOLD TAKE OVER AND SUPPRESS PM TSM CHANCES EVEN WITH TDS STILL
RUNNING M-U60S.

WED-THU SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS RIDGING PREDOMINATES SE U.S. WHILE
TROFFING DEVELOPS IN NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL SWEEP THE NEXT SYSTEM
INTO THE FORECAST PICTURE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN
COMING WITH A FRONTAL ENTRANCE AND THEN POSSIBLE PASSAGE FRI
NIGHT. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY SIGNALLED FROPA FRI NIGHT BUT THE
ECMWF HAS LINGERED A POP THRU AT LEAST SAT. WE WILL FOLLOW HPC
LEAD AND BLEND TO COLLAB PIC WHICH SEEMS AT THIS POINT TO BE A
COMPROMISE LINGER SMALL POP SAT AND DRY SUNDAY FORECAST.

MOS BLEND OF TEMPS TO GOING FORECAST AND COLLAB PIC LIKEWISE WORKS
WELL AND WILL BE OUR OVERALL SHORT-TO-LONG RANGE FORECAST TEMP
STRATEGY.

&&

.AVIATION...
BEST CHC CB/THUNDER WILL BE PEAK HEATING HOURS CGI TAF. FRONTAL
ENTRANCE/PASSAGE TONIGHT WL YIELD OCNL SHRA/TSRA ALL TAF SITES AND
MAY TEMPORARILY DROP CIGS/VSBYS INTO MVFR CATEGORY. LOWER CLOUD
DECK FROM FRONTAL ENTRANCE/CONVECTION WL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THRU
AM HOURS TUE WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFT 15Z TUE AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WEST TO EAST UPON FRONTS DEPARTURE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
512 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-101100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
512 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY RISKS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. HOWEVER...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

WIND GUSTS OF FROM 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL
CREATE ROUGH CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES. BOATERS OF SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF THE REGION...SOME POINTS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE ABOVE OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO THE APPROPRIATE RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS
FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF THE REGION...SOME POINTS
ALONG THE OHIO AND WABASH RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO THE APPROPRIATE RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
134 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 PM     HAIL             1 E WAYNE CITY          38.35N 88.57W
06/09/2008  M0.75 INCH       WAYNE              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED BETWEEN WAYNE CITY AND SIMS.

&&

SMITTY