Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIP/SEVERE CHANCES TONIGHT...ANY
LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION AT MIDDAY...PRECIP AND SEVERE
CHANCES ARE ALREADY PICKING BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. PREFER A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE SLOWER
NAM...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR WESTERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EASTERN AREAS FROM MID EVENING TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREA REMAINS
IN A DAY 1 MODERATE RISK WITH A TORNADO WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA.  SEVERE
PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT
ADDITIONAL WATCHES. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED ALMOST ENTIRELY THROUGH
THE REGION...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT DUE TO SOME TREES DOWNED BECAUSE OF THESE
WINDS AND THE EXTREMELY MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 11Z DUE TO
FLOOD ISSUES ALREADY OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND MORE
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.
ANY FLOOD ISSUES THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE MORE LOCALIZED IN
NATURE.

FOR POPS TONIGHT...AGAIN LEANING HEAVILY TOWARD THE NAM
TIMING...WENT WITH LIKELY POPS WEST TO CATEGORICAL EAST FOR THE
EVENING HOURS...REDUCING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO CHANCE WEST TO LOW
CATEGORICAL EAST. ON FRIDAY...NAM AND GFS LINGER SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA IN THE MORNING...QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...AS INDICATED BY NAM AND GFS...WILL NOT BE UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE MORNING...AND LINGERED LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

WENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE APPROACH OF
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. ON SATURDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BRING LIGHT
QPF INTO THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE
MORNING...WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS STILL INDICATES SOME LIGHT
QPF...AND SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES SHOW A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH ANY RAIN...SO CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. ON
SUNDAY...CONFINED ANY LINGERING POPS FOR SHOWERS TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE EVEN MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEARING
TAKING PLACE AND THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW...LOW TEMPS CURRENTLY ARE FORECAST TO DIP TOWARD FREEZING.
THOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY FOR ANYTHING DEFINITIVE...THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEE IF
ANY FROST OR FREEZE ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.

FARTHER INTO THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND A
GRADUAL WARM UP.

FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS...OVERALL USED A COMPROMISE OF MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE....LEANING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD WARMER MET FOR TONIGHT.  IN
THE EXTENDED...WENT NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE
THROUGH TUESDAY HIGHS...THEN WENT NEAR TO LITTLE BELOW MEX
GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. FOLLOWED TIMING FROM RUC MODEL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AND ATTEMPTED TO NARROW THE WINDOW DOWN AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE FOR MOST
LIKELY TIME OF PRECIPITATION. WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN BROUGHT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE STORMS. CONTINUED MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS TO 37 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR
KCGI/KPAH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-
     GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
     MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-
     GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
     MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE
     GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-
     SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-
     CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-
     RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE
     IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE
     IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
     SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
     SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

PUBLIC...RST
AVIATION...PS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
125 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-111330-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
125 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE TIME FRAME IS FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE. FLOODING RAINS ARE
ALSO A THREAT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY. REFER TO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. ALSO REFER TO THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILED RIVER AND AREAL FLOODING
INFORMATION.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FOR INFORMATION ON FLOODING...REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
AND STATEMENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS...RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS ARE NEEDED
AS WELL.

PS

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