Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
320 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE CHANCES OF CONVECTION AND QPF FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE 12Z MODELS HAVE ACCURATELY INDICATED A STRONG CAP DEVELOPING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING ALL
CONVECTION.  WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN...COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-EVENING.

THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN FRONTAL
TIMING...MOVING IT WELL INTO THE AREA BY 06Z AND THROUGH ALL BUT
KHOP AREA BY 12Z. SHOULD SEE A NICE BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL HAVE CATEGORICALS THROUGHOUT
THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH AN EMPHASIS IN THE NORTH AND WEST THIS
EVENING...AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE NEAR TERM...IS HOW QUICKLY WILL IT DRY
OUT FRIDAY...AND THEN HOW FAST WILL THE PRECIPITATION RETURN...AS
THE 850MB FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z
ECMWF...JUST IN...CONTINUES TO BE THE LAGGARD WITH RESPECT TO ENDING
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS EACH INDICATE LITTLE
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVENING...BEFORE THE
NAM AND SREF BEGIN BRINGING ELEVATED CONVECTION BACK ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW POPS FOR THE
SOUTH SHOULD HANDLE THIS WELL. ALL MODELS BRING ANTOHER SWATH OF
CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT MAY NEED HIGHER POPS EVENTUALLY. ALL
MODELS PRODUCE QPF OVER THE AREA...BUT THIS CONSENSUS IS NEW...AND
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE GOING WITH
LIKELY POPS.

MAY SEE A BREAK ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT LOW POPS IN JUST TO BE
SAFE. THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE WETTEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE NAM AND GFS ARE RELATIVELY DRY. BONAFIDE WET PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SUNDAY...AS THE 850MB WINDS CRANK UP TO 50 KTS OVER THE AREA...WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WENT WITH LIKELY
POPS OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE.

THE 12Z ECMWF HAS NOW JOINED THE GFS IN PULLING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BEFORE SWEEPING THE FRONT AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF WAS STILL MUCH WETTER...AND MORE
IN-LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO THIS FORECAST STILL HAS LIKELY
POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE NEW ECMWF/GFS CONSENSUS CERTAINLY IS MORE APPETIZING FROM A
HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING STANDPOINT. WILL UPDATE THE ESF TO GIVE
LATEST THINKING.

HAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DRY...BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA WITH YET MORE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT TO STAY MAINLY MVFR WITH SOME VFR THIS AFTN EITHER DUE TO
VSBY OR CIGS AND SOMETIMES BOTH. ALSO EXPECT THE BEST CHC OF TSRA
BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z FRI. OTHERWISE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR
AT THIS TIME. BUT WILL BE CLOSE.
&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

DRS/KH

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