Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1238 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
FLOOD WATCHES WILL REMAIN AS THEY ARE. ONE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD EVENTS IN MANY YEARS CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. STORM TOTALS FROM 3-6 INCHES WITH DOPPLER
ESTIMATES REACHING 7 INCHES SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS
GRADUALLY TRANSLATE THE AXIS OF CONVERGENCE AND MOIST INFLUX
INTERACTION SOUTH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT THE HEAVIEST
RAIN AXIS SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR
CWFA.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER ASPECT INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THAT PART OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY THAT IS JUST INTO THE WARM SECTOR...AND RELATIVELY
UNAFFECTED BY THE CURRENT HEAVY RAIN. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE OZARKS...AND OVER TIME
PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH...TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THUS A
SHIFT IN THE RAIN EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LEFT THUNDER OUT BASED ON A LACK OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A SURFACE LOW PASSING
JUST TO OUR NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UP ALONG I-64
FOR RAIN JUST IN CASE IT SNEAKS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. QUIET WEATHER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SATURDAY...THEN A MID LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...WHICH
MAY YIELD A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS
COME MUCH CLOSER TO THE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL BIAS THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND PREVIOUS
ECMWF RUNS FOR SUNDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY...THEN THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
POOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCGI...KEVV AND KOWB AS SHOWERS
PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
AT KPAH AS THE AXIS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
SHIFTS SOUTH. BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEPICT. TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MAY
RESULT IN MORE PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AND
VSBYS. OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
SHIFTING WINDS AS THE MAIN BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
THE VARYING PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT WIND
FORECAST...BUT WITH TIME...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY COME AROUND TO THE
NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BALLARD-CARLISLE-
     MCCRACKEN.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-
     DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-
     LYON-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE
     GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-
     SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE
     IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
     VANDERBURGH.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR SPENCER-WARRICK.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
551 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-191000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
551 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WEST KENTUCKY...EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NEW MADRID MISSOURI...TO DIXON
SPRINGS ILLINOIS...TO POSEYVILLE INDIANA...TO SANTA CLAUS. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY
TORNADOES.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OR IS IMMINENT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. SOME AREAS MAY SEE 7 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE THE
STORM SYSTEM LEAVES THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. REFER TO THE FLOOD WATCHES AND
WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MORE DETAILED FLOODING INFORMATION.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE MAJOR RIVERS AS WELL. REFER TO
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MAJOR FLOODING OF RIVERS WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
ON SOME WATERWAYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. REFER TO THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR UPDATED DETAILED
INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...FLOODING AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

RST

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1258 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1157 PM     HEAVY RAIN       EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
03/18/2008  M5.25 INCH       VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1219 AM     FLOOD            EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
03/19/2008                   VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING OF SOME BASEMENTS IN NEIGHBORHOODS 1 MILE
            NORTHEAST OF THE INTERSECTION OF US 41 AND SR 62.

1222 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
03/19/2008  M5.64 INCH       VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN THE
            EVANSVILLE AREA. MANY STREETS ARE CLOSED WITH WATER
            COVERING MANY MORE.

&&

RJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
127 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OWENSBORO               37.76N 87.12W
03/18/2008  E3.00 INCH       DAVIESS            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DITCHES STARTING TO OVERFLOW IN OWENSBORO.

0107 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W WEST SALEM          38.52N 88.06W
03/19/2008  M4.95 INCH       EDWARDS            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL MEASURED SINCE MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

0110 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NEWBURGH                37.95N 87.40W
03/19/2008  M5.02 INCH       WARRICK            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4.71 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED TUESDAY...WITH 0.31 INCHES
            MEASURED SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

RJP