Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
258 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WILL NEED TO BE AS BRIEF AS POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO INCOMING SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES TODAY...WITH 50KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.
SQUALL LINE JUST OFF TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS HISTORY OF
SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE AND 65 MPH WINDS. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TO BRING VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...WIND PATTERN ALOFT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT. DECENT INSTABILITY PROGGED THIS AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE MS RIVER...WITH LI'S IN THE -1 TO -3 RANGE. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY REALLY GETS SQUASHED DOWN TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE A DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT MOST AREAS WILL AT
LEAST GET ANOTHER HEAVY SHOT OF RAIN EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(WEST) OR THIS EVENING (FURTHER EAST). THINK TOTALS WILL BE IN THE
HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE. AM CURRENTLY ASSUMING THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT IN SPEEDING THE SYSTEM THROUGH ALL AREAS WITHIN ABOUT A
RATHER SHORT (3 TO 4 HOUR) PERIOD...SO NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
AT THIS TIME.

HAVE BEEN GETTING REPORTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS TODAY..WITH
ISOLATED 50 TO 60 MPH...ESP IN HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL LEAVE THE
WIND ADVISORY POSTED FOR EARLY TONIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. GUSTS COULD BE LOCALLY UP TO 40 KNOTS. A LINE OF STORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY EVEN HIGHER GUSTS. THE
DURATION OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF SINCE THEY WILL BE FAST
MOVING. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN STORMS. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE WEST BUT NOT AS STRONG AS
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR BY MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     BALLARD-CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-
     DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-
     LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION
     KY-WEBSTER.

MO...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW
     MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-
     SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

PUBLIC.....MEFFERT
AVIATION...MY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
625 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ008>022-280200-
GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-
CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-
HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...
EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...DIXON...
MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...
GREENVILLE...ELKTON
625 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY...

A LINE OF STRONG STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR FAIRFIELD ILLINOIS
SOUTHWEST THROUGH CAIRO...THEN ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE
STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 35 TO 50
MPH...PRODUCING SOME WIND DAMAGE AND BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINS.
THROUGH 8 PM...THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE COMMUNITIES OF FORT
BRANCH AND EVANSVILLE INDIANA...AS WELL AS COMMUNITIES IN
PENNYRILE AND GREEN RIVER VALLEY AREAS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOTORIST
SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING DUE TO PONDING OF ROADWAYS.
INDIVIDUALS OUTDOORS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAPE GIRARDEAU          37.31N 89.55W
12/27/2008                   CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY DAMAGE REPORTED TO A DOUBLE WIDE. HALF THE ROOF HAS
            BEEN BLOWN OFF, STRUCTURAL DAMAGE, DECK OBLITERATED,
            FRONT YARD RIDDLED WITH DEBRIS. NO REPORTS OF DOWNED
            POWERLINES OR TREES. OCCUPANTS NOT HOME.

&&

JAYSONW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
650 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT VERNON            38.32N 88.91W
12/27/2008                   JEFFERSON          IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOME TREES DOWN ON NORHT SIDE OF TOWN. POWER OUTAGES
            REPORTED IN INA.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
652 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     METROPOLIS              37.15N 88.71W
12/27/2008  E60 MPH          MASSAC             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
656 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     PADUCAH                 37.07N 88.64W
12/27/2008  M59.00 MPH       MCCRACKEN          KY   ASOS

            51 KNOT GUST AT PADUCAH ASOS. 38 KNOTS SUSTAINED.

&&

JAYSONW

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