Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER FROM EARLY MORNING REMNANT CONVECTION
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM ELEVATING TOO MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
PARTIAL CLEARING AND BETTER DESTABILIZATION BACK OVER MISSOURI
SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...ANY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD TEND TO DRIFT
THIS WAY TONIGHT...SO WE BOOSTED RAIN CHANCES TO 40/50 PERCENT. FOR
SATURDAY...LATEST NAM AND GFS DEPICT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY...WITH A DRYING TREND
ELSEWHERE AS A BUBBLE HIGH TEMPORARILY TAKES CONTROL. WILL NOT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION ANYWHERE TOMORROW...BUT AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE CHOSEN TO
ELIMINATE MENTION OF PRECIP DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NAM AND GFS
INDICATE NEXT WAVE PASSAGE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING DURING THAT PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN
SHAPING UP NEXT WEEK...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY WHILE A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THAT PLACES
OUR REGION IN THE EVER SO TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW...SO DETAIL IN THE
SMALLER SCALE IS DIFFICULT TO COME BY WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS ALL SEEM TO HINT AT THE RIDGE
BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT INFLUENCE NEXT WEEK...BUT OPERATIONAL RUNS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO HINT AT MORE INFLUENCE FROM
PERTURBATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WE
FAVORED MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP MID TO LATE WEEK...AFTER A
DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES BREAKING THE 100
DEGREE THRESHOLD. IF IT IS DETERMINED THAT THE RIDGE WILL INDEED
BUILD MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WE MAY NEED TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE AND SHIFT OUR CONCERNS TO THE SUMMERTIME
HEAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE QUAD STATE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA SHOULD LIFT OR SCATTER OUT BY 21Z.

OTHERWISE IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ONE MORE ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH...MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF...THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
KENTUCKY...BUT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK.

SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE
ABLE TO SCATTER OR CLEAR...BUT MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
AND THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AREA. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP
AFTER 15Z SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED. LIGHT NORTH OR
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

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