Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
205 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...
BIGGEST AND REALLY THE ONLY CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE REVOLVES
AROUND THE WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ALTHOUGH A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO FIND...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINED POISED ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT THE
SATELLITE...DEWPOINTS AND MAYBE WINDS...THE FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM
OUR SPRINGFIELD ILLINOIS TO JUST WEST OF EVANSVILLE TO JUST WEST OF
BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WAS KICKING OFF SOME SHOWERS THIS
MORNING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS FRONT HAS NOW MOVED NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE HEAT OF
THE DAY.

TONIGHTS FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY SINCE THE MODELS ARE NOT
IN AGREEMENT ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MISSOURI...IOWA AND ILLINOIS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE NAM KEEPS ALL OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF OUR
AREA...WHILE THE GFS PAINTS OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES. THE SREF AND ECMWF SUPPORT THE NAM SOLUTION OF
KEEPING THINGS DRY TONIGHT. WOULD THINK IF ANY AREA HAD A CHANCE
FOR RAIN...IT WOULD BE OUR NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY. TONIGHTS FORECAST WILL DEFINITELY BE A LAST MINUTE
CALL...TO SEE WHERE CURRENT CONVECTION ENDS UP AND TO TAKE A QUICK
LOOK AT 18Z MODEL RUNS FOR CLUES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...OUR NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WE WILL SEE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE NAM SHOWS THE FRONT ENTERING OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THIS HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT.
THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THE PRECIP ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER 00Z HOWEVER.
COULD NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED CONVECTION THOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL
RAISE POPS IN THE NORTH AND SOUTH AND SPLIT THE GRID TO INDICATE
THAT THE MORNING SHOULD BE THE DRIER OF THE TWO PERIODS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.
COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS GIVEN THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER (2.00 TO 2.25 INCHES) VALUES NOTED IN THE
SOUNDINGS. MAY MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONE FORECAST
PRODUCT.

ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. IN THE
AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD JUST BE CONFINED PORTIONS OF WEST
KENTUCKY...AND MOST LIKELY JUST THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY
BENIGN WEEK AHEAD. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. FROM MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WE WILL BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY.

OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO COME DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME THOUGH
AND WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES. WILL LEAVE FRIDAY DRY THOUGH...AS MAIN
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABLY WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...WHICH IS BEYOND DAY 7.

AS FAR AS HOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN TO EXPECT AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY...850 MB TEMPS DOWN FROM 19-20 DEG C TO ABOUT 12
TO 14 DEG C FOR MONDAY. SO WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BACK OFF
INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...WITH THE JULY SUN AND THE
DRIER AIR IN PLACE...WILL PROBABLY KEEP US FROM BEING ANY COOLER
THAN THAT. SHOULD FEEL MUCH BETTER ANYWAY DUE TO THE LACK OF
STIFLING HUMIDITY. MODELS SUGGESTING DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL FEEL REALLY
NICE. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGES
FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
MEAN A GRADUAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WILL HANDLE WITH VCNTY. VFR CIGS AND VSBY
WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND
FOG. FROM MID SAT MORNING ON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL ALSO HANDLE WITH VCNTY FOR NOW.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM....CW
AVIATION...JAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
406 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-121000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
406 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON PORTIONS OF AREA RIVERS. REFER TO THE
FLOOD WARNIGNS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE OF STORMS...INCLUDING STRONG STORMS...WILL BE WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH SATURDAY NIGHT STORMS.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON PORTIONS OF AREA RIVERS. REFER TO THE
FLOOD WARNIGNS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MAINTAIN ALERT STATUS IN CASE THEIR ACTIVATION IS
REQUESTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

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