Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
156 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
BIGGEST CHALLENGES WITH THIS PACKAGES WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
POPS ALMOST EVERY FORECAST PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROS THE CWA IN THE UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS.
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...HOWEVER A FEW COULD PULSE
UPWARD TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. POP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE
PROGRESS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT THE GFS APPEARS A BIT TOO AGRESSIVE...SO
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/SREF.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY POPS SHOULD DECREASE FROM THE NORTH AS
THE BOUNDARY SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THE AGRESSIVE GFS SHOWS
NO POPS FOR THESE TWO PERIODS...BUT THE ECMWF/NAM/SREF KEEP SCHC-CHC
POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SO LEANED THAT WAY. AS THE
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY...AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS DRAG A WEAK FROPA INTO THE QUAD STATE REGION ON SATURDAY...
SO BUMPED UP POPS TO SCHC.  MODELS ARE ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT BY
HANGING UP THIS BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA ALONG WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND NO APPRECIABLE
CAPPING INVERSION ...SO WILL ALSO INCREASE POPS TO SCHC FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MEXMOS AND HPC GUIDANCE
POPS ALSO SUPPORT THESE CHANGES.

SUNDAY NIGHT EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT TO NEAR THE
KY/TN BORDER...THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY HANG UP OVER OUR
SEMO COUNTIES AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES ON MONDAY SO WILL INTRODUCE A SCHC POP OVER
OUR SEMO COUNTIES. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGRESSIVE BRINGING THIS
STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE PLAINS...BUT IT INITIALLY LOOKS A BIT
OVERDONE...SO FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SCHC POPS. AGAIN THE
GFS IS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...SO WENT
WITH A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LOW. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE
AROUND 12Z. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
INTO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC.......JP
AVIATION.....MY

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