Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN AGAIN STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID-LEVEL WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED ENOUGH
TO POP ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
TONIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED OVER
THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN KENTUCKY...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCES FARTHER WEST AND NORTH.

AS WAS DEMONSTRATED LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...THE ABILITY TO PINPOINT
THE INDIVIDUAL PEAKS IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL IN ADVANCE WILL
BE DIFFICULT OVER THE NEXT WEEK. IN THE NEAR TERM...THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SO
AFTER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION SATURDAY...WE
BUMPED UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AS HIGH AS 40 PERCENT ON SUNDAY
FROM MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY...WITH LOWER
CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

WHILE NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN...LATEST SREF AND OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
NAM AND GFS ARE SIGNALING BETTER ODDS OF STAYING DRY MONDAY AND
MOST OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...ALL BETS ARE OFF AS A FAIRLY ACTIVE
BUT WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS. AS A RESULT...WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MIDDLE TO END
OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...NIGHTTIME LOWS REFLECT A
WARMER FWC/MET BLEND OVER THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AN AVERAGE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. IN THE EXTENDED...WE GENERALLY
FAVORED THE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR SKY AND VSBY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE...AND WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TO VICINITY AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS
PUSHES EAST OF THE TAF SITES. OVERNIGHT...INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. COULD BE SOME FOG OR SCT LOW
CIG RESTRICTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURATE WITH
SHARP BLYR INVERSION DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z BELOW 1K FT. WILL HINT AT
BOTH BUT REFRAIN FROM AOB IFR RESTRICTIONS UNTIL A CLEAR SIGNAL
SHOWS UP IN TRENDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL NOT BE OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...RJP
AVIATION...CTN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
343 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-211000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
343 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY
THREAT IS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON AREA RIVERS. REFER TO THE LATST WARNINGS
AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON AREA RIVERS. REFER TO THE LATST WARNINGS
AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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