Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE POPS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND HOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR FOR TUESDAY AND
BEYOND.

CURRENT PREDICAMENT IS HOW THE MCS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI
WILL AFFECT OUR CWA. DECIDED TO ADD POPS OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
THIS EVENING JUST IN CASE IT HOLDS TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRUSH THAT
AREA.

AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF OUR CWA...COULD SEE A FEW RW/TRW DEVELOP...SO KEPT SCHC-CHC
POPS THERE. ON MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA...SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN DECENT
INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MOISTURE.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...DONT THINK ANY PRECIP WILL LINGER BEYOND 00Z TUESDAY...SO
KEPT IT DRY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT ONLY KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES
AT VERY PLEASANT LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR CWA...WE
MAY SEE SCATTERED RW/TRW OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...THEN
EXPANDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH.

LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKING DRY UNDER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENT FORECAST IN PLACE HAS MINIMAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN
PLACE WITH LITTLE OR NO CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT IN PLACE UNTIL UNTIL
AFTER 12Z MONDAY FOR KCGI/KEVV/KOWB TO ACCOUNT FOR ANTICIPATED
LEFTOVER CONVECTION FROM REDEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS /MCS/
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE THE ONLY FORECAST CEILINGS
AT THIS TIME THROUGH 12Z MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DUE TO HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUDS.

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WRINKLE IN THE CURRENT AVIATION FORECAST IN
EFFECT IS THAT SPC HAS EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT THE INSTABILITY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER WEST CENTRAL
MO AND NWRN IL MAY OVERTURN THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH ACROSS THE KCGI
AREA ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KCGI
TAF SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE TAFS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THIS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT AM
CURRENTLY CONCERNED THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS SPOTTY
ENOUGH TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN AND NEAR KCGI.
GIVEN THE LATER DISSIPATION OF FOG THIS MORNING AND THE LACK OF
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON /DURING THE
PEAK HEATING TIME PERIOD/...IT WILL TAKE SIGNIFICANT AND FOCUSED
LIFT TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT CAN ENTRAIN DRIER AIR
ALOFT TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS IN THE VICINITY
OF KCGI AND NEARBY TAF SITES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...JAP
AVIATION...KES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
343 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-161045-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
343 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM BOONVILLE INDIANA TO DEXTER MISSOURI. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING SEVERE NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BOONVILLE INDIANA TO PERRYVILLE MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE QUAD STATE ON MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS
TO HICKMAN KENTUCKY...THEN OVER THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE REGION
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING NORTH OF A LINE
FROM BOONVILLE INDIANA TO PERRYVILLE MISSOURI.

JAP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
622 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

ILZ075>078-080>082-084-160030-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARBONDALE
622 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

A CLUSTER THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...HALF INCH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH 730 PM. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY IMPACTED
INCLUDE AREAS FROM NEAR AVA...TO MOUNT VERNON...TO WAYNE CITY AND
FAIRFIELD. ISOLATED STORMS MAY EVEN GROW TO SEVERE LEVELS THIS
EVENING.

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