Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
101 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...

SVR TSM WATCH 522 TIL 01Z NRN PTNS FA MAY TRANSLATE SOUTH EARLY
TONIGHT BUT W/LOSS OF DIURNALLY DESTABILIZED LOWER ATMOS MAY NOT
MAINTAIN WATCH STATUS JUST TSMS CHANCE/MAINLY +RA THREAT. HPC QPF
AREAL AVERAGES 3/4-1 IN LOWER WABASH EXASPERATING ONGOING FLOOD
CONDITIONS...BUT SHORT FUSE FLOODING SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO MORE
URBAN/SMALL STREAM & STREET/LOW LANDS DUE TO FRONT/STORMS MOVING ON
THRU AND NOT STALLING. MODELS IN FAIR SYNCHRONICITY NOW IN PUSHING
IT ALL THRU TONIGHT W/ALL BUT FAR SRN/SERN PTNS FA (PENNYRILE WKY)
MAINLY EAST OF LAKES LINGERING A SLGT CHANCE MENTION EARLY SAT AM.

12Z NAM CONTINUES ITS TREND OF PUSHING FRONT THRU BUT ALSO
RETURNING SOME WARM AIR OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY THATS JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FA TOMORROW PM. HOWEVER ITS THE ONLY MODEL DOING
SO AND AS A RESULT WELL KEEP THE POPS OUT AND JUST HIT THE SKY
GRID A LITTLE FOR ENHANCED DIURNAL SC/CU.

SAT NIGHT-SUN WE ARE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BUT NOT REALLY
COOLER/DRIER JUST YET...AS THE REINFORCING COOL/DRY SHOT COMES
THRU SUN NIGHT-MON. WELL ACCOMPANY SMALL POP WITH IT IN NWLY FLOW
PATTERN...THEN ALL MODEL MOS SUGGESTS NICE COOL OFF/DRY OFF IN
AIRMASS THAT FILTERS IN THERAFTER FOR TUE BUT ESP WED-FRI. NEW HPC
AND MEX MOS EVEN DIPS DOWN INTO U50S/U70S WITH L60S-L80S WIDESPREAD.

WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEAR TERM CONDITIONS THRU PRESS TIME BUT
ONGOING POPS TO PEAK IN LIKELY CATEGORY EARLY TONIGHT WITH
BOUNDARY PASSAGE. COLLAB CONSIDERATIONS WILL NOTWITHSTANDING THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED AND ALIGNS FAIRLY CLOSELY
TO THE INHERITED PACKAGE & HPC LEAD IN THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CU FIELDS PRODUCING SCT CB/TSRA IN HEAT OF DAY
STORMS MAY SUBSIDE KPAH THIS EVENING BEFORE BUBBLING UP AGAIN WITH
BOUNDARY PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. MORE NRN/WRN TAF SITES WL HAVE BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO VICINITY 00Z-06Z AND INCREASING TSRA COVERAGE THRU
EVENING HOURS...WITH LOWER CIGS PREVAILING AFT FROPA AFT 06Z.
TEMPO IFR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE GRADUAL RETURN TO LOW VFR CIGS DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS SAT W/EVENTUAL SCATTER OUT BY/BEFORE 18Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1158 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

ILZ088>094-KYZ001>013-015>017-020>022-MOZ086-087-100-107>112-114-
141000-
UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-FULTON-
HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-
CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-
MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1158 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THE
STORMS COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE LOWER WABASH RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF A PINCKNEYVILLE TO MOUNT
CARMEL ILLINOIS LINE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY
AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON PORTIONS OF AREA RIVERS AND FLOOD
WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR MORE
DETAILED INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MAINTAIN ALERT STATUS IN CASE THEIR ACTIVATION IS
REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

ILZ075>078-080>087-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ014-018-019-MOZ076-
141000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-UNION KY-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-PERRY MO-
1158 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 522 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM. REFER TO
THE WATCH FOR MORE DETAILED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INFORMATION.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF AREA RIVERS. REFER TO
THE FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF A PINCKNEYVILLE TO MOUNT
CARMEL ILLINOIS LINE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY
AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON PORTIONS OF AREA RIVERS AND FLOOD
WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR MORE
DETAILED INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION REQUESTED THROUGH 800 PM FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 522.