Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
223 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR HAVE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. 850 WIND FORECAST FROM
ECMWF ALONG WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SUGGEST THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN GENERATION AREA TONIGHT WITH STORMS
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG 850-300 MB THICKNESS LINES TOWARD OUR CWA.

ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LINGERING
MOISTURE AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES MAY ALLOW SCATTERED AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

AN IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER
TEXAS BY LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG SURFACE LOW NEAR THE OKLAHOMA AREA WITH A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING OVER ARKANSAS. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

THESE MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN
THERE WILL BE A BREAK AS A MUCH STRONGER IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS IMPULSE SHOULD DEEPEN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND GRADUALLY MOVE INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.

SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH FAVORABLE 0-8 BULK SHEAR AND HIGH CAPE VALUES. THIS
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. LINGERING MOISTURE AND DECENT
AFTERNOON HEATING MAY INITIATE A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH HAIL THE MAIN HAZARD AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
AND TIME OF YEAR. FOLLOWED THE SREF RELATIVELY CLOSE IN THE SHORT
TERM AND HPC FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

COMPROMISED BETWEEN ALL GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TONIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM....PS
AVIATION...RJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
904 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-011000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
904 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AS A WEAKENING BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A
PERRYVILLE MISSOURI TO CALHOUN KENTUCKY LINE. THE MAIN THREATS
WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MOST OF THE STORMS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HOWEVER THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE MISSOURI TO
MURRAY KENTUCKY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.

AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE
REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THIS EVENT IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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