River Flood Warning 8, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
228 AM CST WED FEB 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
IN CLEANUP MODE SO WILL TRY AND KEEP IT BRIEF. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP TIMING...COVERAGE...AND POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM CROSSING THE REGION AT THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING...SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP NEXT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

LATEST SURFACE MAP INDICATES A SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST
OF OUR CWA WITH ITS ATTENDANT FRONTAL SYSTEM BISECTING OUR CWA FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PUSHING EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE A
SCHC/CHC FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM MARBLE
HILL MISSOURI TO HOPKINSVILLE KENTUCKY.

THERE IS A SCHC FOR FLURRIES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST SECTIONS
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND COOLER
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT PAINTING ANY QPF
ACROSS OUR CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MINIMAL
MOISTURE AND A DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA...COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES....SO ADDED SCHC POPS THERE.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A
LITTLE STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT WILL
CROSS THE CWA AND POSSIBLY CRANK OUT A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF RAIN...SO
ADDED SCHC POPS FOR BOTH PERIODS.

MADE NO CHANGES BEYOND SIXTH PERIOD

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...BUT WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE. POCKETS OF LIFR CIGS IN RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS IN ALL AREAS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING WILL REDUCE VSBY TO AROUND
6SM. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...JP
AVIATION...MY

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