River Flood Warning 39, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
352 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...

WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST MODERATE SNOW BEGINNING TO FILL IN OVER
SE MO AND SW IL. ALREADY AN INCH OR TWO ON THE GROUND IN THOSE
AREAS...THOUGH MAIN ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ON GRASSY SURFACES AND
ROADS ARE MOSTLY WET. THIS MAY CHANGE IF THE PRECIP COMES DOWN HARD
BEFORE SUNRISE.

MOST OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE COME BACK MUCH DRIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESP NW OF THE OH RIVER. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE. WILL BLEND THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FACTOR IN RADAR TRENDS IN FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS. EXPECT ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES THIS MORNING OVER SW IL AND SE
MO...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. THIS WILL BRING THEIR 12 HR TOTALS
UP TO THE 3-5 INCH RANGE. SNOW SHOULD GET GOING DURING THE MORNING
ELSEWHERE...AND ACCUMULATE A COUPLE SLUSHY INCHES DURING THE DAY.
WITH TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 32 AND MOST OF THE MAIN ROADS ALREADY
TREATED...MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH OF A TRAVEL IMPACT ON MAIN ROADWAYS.
HOWEVER...ANY HEAVY BURSTS COULD TEMPORARILY CHANGE THAT.

TROWAL LIKE DEFORMATION AREA STILL EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS OF WRN
KY AND SW IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THIS COULD BRING
ANOTHER QUICK 2-4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER BURSTS IN BANDED
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY TO THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WRN KY AND EAST OF
THE EVV AREA IN SRN IN. THIS COULD BRING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 4 TO 6
INCH RANGE ALONG AND SE OF THE OH RIVER IN KY AND TO MUCH OF SW IN.
THIS IS ASSUMING APPRECIABLE MELTING DOES NOT OCCUR AS THE SNOW
FALLS DURING THE DAY. SNOWS SHOULD REALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE
TONIGHT IN OUR FAR EAST.

ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SATURDAY MORNING...THINGS
SHOULD BE QUIET THE REST OF THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. LOOKING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM THOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. ON
TUESDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THE
00Z GFS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT IS MUCH SLOWER WITH IT. PLUS
THE GFS HINTS AT A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE GULF
COAST THAT PAINTS QPF RIGHT UP TO OUR SOUTHERN DOORSTEP. THE ECMWF
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM TOO BUT IT IS MUCH SLOWER TO MOVE IT EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ANY
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LATER IN THE WEEK. ON THURSDAY...BOTH
MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW A DECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
AREA. WE ALREADY HAVE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE
GRIDS FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED HERE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY NIGHTS LOW ARE GOING TO BE TRICKY
SINCE IT WILL REALLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET. UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. WITH H850 TEMPS STILL BELOW
ZERO ON SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS...SUNDAY
WILL STILL BE A COLD DAY...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS SATURDAY.  WE
SHOULD SEE A SLOW WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE BULK OF THE SUB ZERO
H850 AIR SHIFTS EASTWARD. COULD BE BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
BIG STORY TODAY IS OBVIOUSLY THE SNOW. BANDS OF SNOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY...SOME WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL
RATES...WHICH WILL AID IN BRINGING CIGS/VSBYS DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...FOR THE MOST PART...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE HERE TO STAY FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD (THROUGH 06Z).
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BALLARD-
     CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-FULTON-GRAVES-HICKMAN-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-
     MCCRACKEN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST SATURDAY FOR CALDWELL-
     CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-HENDERSON-HOPKINS-LYON-MCLEAN-
     MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BOLLINGER-
     BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY
     MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR ALEXANDER-
     EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-
     WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GIBSON-PIKE-
     POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM....CW
AVIATION...CW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
455 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2008

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-081200-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
455 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE REGION. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN
3 AND 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE SNOWFALL.

IN ADDITION...MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON PORTIONS OF SEVERAL
AREA RIVERS. REFER TO THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1046 AM CST FRI MAR 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 AM     SNOW             GALATIA                 37.84N 88.61W
03/07/2008  M1.2 INCH        SALINE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...BUT LOCAL ROAD SURFACES OK.

&&

SMITH