Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
133 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT IS STILL SOUTH OF PAH FA...BUT ELEVATED STORMS WERE
OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY AND OFFERING ISOLD SVR THREAT INTO OZARKS
OF SEMO ALREADY. ANTICIPATE ISOLD SVR THREAT TO CONTINUE ALONG/IN
ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH THIS PM/EVENING...LAYING
OUT SOMEWHERE ROUGHLY ALONG THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY. THEN FOCUS
SHIFTS TO WEST AS COLD FRONT COMES IN. STRONG TO SVR (STILL IN
SWODY1-2 SLGT RISK) STORMS ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING NEXT BOUT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THIS MORNING-EARLY PM
RAINS HAVING BROUGHT FORECAST REALIZED .5-1.5 RAINS...THE
OVERNIGHT ROUND LOOKS TO BRING AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 WHICH SHOULD
BRING US CLOSE TO REALIZING OUR 4-5 HPC/FORECAST BULLSEYES. FFA
CONTINUES.

MAIN MODEL TREND IS SLOWER COLD FROPA W/SVR RISK & HEAVY RAIN
THREAT MORESO IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (03-09Z OR EVEN 06-12Z)
VERSUS YESTERDAY RUNS WHICH SHOWED 00-06Z AS PRIMARY THREAT HOURS.
EITHER WAY MODELS STILL SHOW FROPA BY 12Z TONIGHT SO HEAVIEST RAIN
THREAT FOR MOST OF THE AREA IS OVER BY THEN AND 18Z FFA END TIME IS
FINE. HOWEVER 2NDARY WAVE DEVELOPS AND RIDES ALONG THE STALLING
BOUNDARY THRU 18Z...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINLY THE PENNYRILE OF WRN KENTUCKY. STILL THINK 18Z END
TIME IS GOOD THOUGH WELL LINGER A POP THRU THE PM HOURS IN THE SE
ESP...AND FLOOD WARNINGS MAY LINGER TOO.

DONT ANTICIPATE WELL SEE TRUE CLEARING TIL UPPER TROF
PASSAGE...WHICH IS NOT TIL SAT AM. AFTER THAT SURFACE HIGH RIDGE
MOVES INTO MID MS VALLEY FROM WEST AND SATURDAY SHOULD FINISH OUT
AS A NICE DAY. THIS WILL BEGIN A 24-48 HOUR TRANQUIL PERIOD AS THE
HIGH SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST AND UP THE OH VALLEY.

AFTER THAT THE MEDIUM-LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO
OFFER A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THAT RETURNS CHANCE POPS TO THE
PACKAGE ALMOST DAILY. WE TIME THE VARIOUS IMPULSES AND TRY TO
NARROW THE POPS DOWN AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. OVERALL THE GFS & ECMWF
NOW OFFER A TRANSITIONING THEME FROM THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TO A
CENTRAL U.S. TROF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH MIGHT OFFER OUR
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

WE USED A MOS BLEND FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMP APPROACH AND FOLLOWED
THE HPC LEAD WITH COLLABORATIVE TWEEKS FOR THE MEDIUM TO LONG
RANGE TEMP FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS THE RULE IN OTHERWISE RELATIVE LULL BETWEEN
DEPARTING AM-EARLY PM RAINS AND INCOMING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM FRONT...STILL PERCHED JUST TO THE SOUTH AT 18Z...AND
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH THRU EARLY TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE ELYS GOING
SLY WITH WARM FROPA AND INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION BEGINNING
ESP AFT 03Z. IFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY RECOVER TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
BUT DETERIORATE TO IFR/EVEN LIFR AFT 03Z AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS W/IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL HIT W/COLD
FROPA FORECAST 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. AFT 12Z SOME IMPROVEMENT BUT
STILL LINGERING IFR-MVFR CIGS THRU END OF PLANNING PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-
     GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
     MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-
     CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-
     RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE
     IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
     SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

HUMPHREY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-041000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
645 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY. AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY AND A PORTION OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT FOR
DETAILS.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HAIL WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD. HOWEVER...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS. IN THIS SAME AREA...IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHILE THE PROBABILITY
IS LOW...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF
TORNADO SHOULD OPTIMAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS ON AREA RIVER
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE FRIDAY MORNING.
LOOKING AHEAD...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST NEXT WEEK...DURING THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS ON AREA RIVER
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
915 PM CDT THU APR 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SHAWNEETOWN             37.71N 88.17W
04/03/2008                   GALLATIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL SECONDARY ROADS WITHIN THE COUNTY ARE UNDERWATER.
            ROUTE 1 WAS PARTIALLY FLOODED BUT THE WATER HAS SINCE
            RECEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
945 PM CDT THU APR 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
04/03/2008                   VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODED STREETS IN ANGLE MOUNDS SUBDIVISION. 1.75 INCHES
            OF RAIN IN PAST 3 HOURS.

&&

SMITTY

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