Wind Advisory 16, NWS Norman, OK

000 
WWUS74 KOUN 150118
NPWOUN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
818 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

...WIND ADVISORY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

.BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER...ENDED EARLIER
IN THE EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

OKZ021-022-033>038-044-TXZ083>089-150230-
/O.EXP.KOUN.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-080315T0100Z/
BECKHAM-WASHITA-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-
COTTON-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...HOLLIS...
MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...FREDERICK...LAWTON...WALTERS...QUANAH...
CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...
KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY
818 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

THE STRONGEST WINDS HAD DIMINISHED...AND THE WIND ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
OVERNIGHT...SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.

$$

BURKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
424 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE A COUPLE OF WEATHER CONCERNS TO DEAL WITH THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FIRST OFF... WE WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON... WHICH COMBINED WITH HUMIDITIES
FALLING BELOW 20 PERCENT... WILL INCREASE THE WILDFIRE HAZARD.
MEANWHILE... MOST MODELS... INCLUDING THE GFS... ECMWF AND
SREF... AGREE THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL EITHER DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE TODAY... OR PERHAPS REDEVELOP ROUGHLY IN THE
CHILDRESS AREA... AND THEN MOVE EAST GENERALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT. THE MODEL OF EXCEPTION IS THE NAM WHICH TAKES THE
LOW ON A MORE NORTHERN TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. EVEN THOUGH
WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE... WHICH WOULD
NORMALLY ACT TO RELAX THE SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON... THE DEEP MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE
WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS STRONGER THAN THE GRADIENT WOULD SUGGEST.

THE SECOND ISSUE FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE OVER EAST TEXAS IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING BACK NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITIES/MOISTURE WILL INTERACT
WITH THE STRONGER PART OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE GONE BY SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING.

IN THE LONGER TERM... THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES REMAINING BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONCERNING THE HANDLING OF THE LARGE WESTERN
TROUGH DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
A DEEPER... MORE INTENSE UPPER LOW MOVING FROM SW TEXAS... THROUGH
SE OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. MEANWHILE... THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND IS NOT QUITE AS DEEP. WHILE
BOTH SOLUTIONS WILL RESULT IN WET WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...
THE GFS SOLUTION SPREADS HEAVIER PRECIP OVER A LARGER PART OF THE
CWA... WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES... WE WILL CONTINUE THE
CURRENT TREND OF MENTIONING PRECIPITATION OVER ALL THE AREA... BUT
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  43  59  37 /  20  30  10  10
HOBART OK         78  41  64  41 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  84  45  67  43 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           69  35  58  36 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  40  53  33 /  30  60  10  10
DURANT OK         79  49  67  42 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ021-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

30/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-141200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
540 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK COVERS THE AREA EAST OF A LINE FROM MADILL TO
SULPHUR TO SEMINOLE.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 PM.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS.

DISCUSSION...BY LATE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS HAD BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. THE
DRYLINE WAS LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO INTERSTATE 35...CONNECTING WITH
LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST OF NORMAN. STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ACT TO OVERCOME THE CAP BETWEEN 5 AND 7
PM...ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT
DEVELOP BY 7 PM...THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO FORM...HOWEVER...WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG WIND SHEAR AND LOW TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL ALLOW STORM UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE...
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL. ONE OR TWO LONGER LIVED STORMS
MAY BECOME SUPERCELLS...WHICH WOULD THEN CARRY A LOW CHANCE FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY EVEN TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO A SMALL TIME...HOWEVER...AND RELATIVELY
FEW STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIMILARLY...OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM FARTHER NORTH TOWARD
OKLAHOMA CITY AND STILLWATER DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT
EARLY THIS EVENING. LESSER INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA WOULD LIKELY
KEEP STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE SMALL
HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MAR 14.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...50 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY HAMPER ANY ONGOING FIRE FIGHTING
EFFORTS...MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE EAST AND NORTH OF THE LOW...YIELDING WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY. DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT STALLS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A BROAD
AND DEEP SUPPLY OF GULF MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS STORM.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...THE GREATEST CONCERN
APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY...WILL DRAG
WARM AND VERY DRY AIR INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. FIRE DANGER MAY BECOME EXTREME DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS THESE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE VERY
WARM...DRY...AND WINDY WEATHER.

A LARGER AREA OF STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT THE PLAINS ON
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE LARGER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

BURKE