Wind Advisory 10, NWS Norman, OK

Beckham County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Harper County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Major County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Knox County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

000 
WWUS74 KOUN 082004
NPWOUN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
204 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2008

...WIND ADVISORY CANCELLED...


OKZ004-005-009>011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044-TXZ083>089-082115-
/O.CAN.KOUN.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-080208T2200Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-
COTTON-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...ARNETT...WOODWARD...
FAIRVIEW...CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONGA...
ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...ANADARKO...HOLLIS...MANGUM...
HOBART...ALTUS...FREDERICK...LAWTON...WALTERS...QUANAH...
CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...
KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY
204 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 5 PM.

$$

30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
425 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. A FEW ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING... HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION AT GROUND LEVEL. WILL
MAINLY SEE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AS THIS SYSTEM
GOES BY. MEANWHILE... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
NOT ESPECIALLY COLD AND WILL BE FURTHER MODIFIED BY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. WE WILL GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR LATE
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR TEXAS COUNTIES AND A SMALL PART
OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD AND HUMIDITIES BELOW 20 PERCENT. WITH THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE... COULD SEE
DEWPOINTS EVEN LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE... PARTS
OF FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A SHORT TIME AROUND MIDDAY.

FOR THE LATER PERIODS... THE PARADE OF UPPER SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH A RELATIVELY LOW TO MODERATE AMPLITUDE WAVE
PATTERN WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VARIABILITY TO OUR WEATHER
EVERY COUPLE DAYS OR SO. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER
WITH NOT A LOT OF WIND. SUNDAYS FORECAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS A
CANADIAN FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE SIMILAR WITH BRINGING FRONT WELL INTO OKLAHOMA WHILE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER IN THAT IT NOT ONLY DOES NOT BRING IN MUCH COLD AIR INTO
THE AREA BUT HAS ALREADY IT RETREATING QUICKLY NORTHWARD. WITH THE
LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW MAKING IT A MORE DIFFICULT CALL... WE
WILL STAY WITH OUR COLDER SOLUTION THAT TRENDS TOWARDS THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER... THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE RATHER
SHALLOW... SO THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE OF A DRIZZLE... WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH ESPECIALLY IF THE COLDER
ECMWF HOLDS.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING IN AROUND
TUESDAY. THE SLOWER GFS DIGS THE WAVE MORE WHILE CLOSING IT OFF.
MEANWHILE... THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ALREADY HAS
THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. THE NET RESULT
IS FOR THE PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO HANG AROUND
LONGER WITH GFS. WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT APPEAR TO
CLOSE OFF THE LOW... THEY GO ALONG WITH THE SLOWER SPEED OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS... AND IN FACT ARE EVEN A BIT SLOWER. FOR NOW WE
WILL MAINTAIN A BEND MORE TOWARDS THE GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  30  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         60  29  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  33  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           57  23  60  23 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     54  27  58  21 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         64  34  66  38 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

20/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
620 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST SATURDAY FEB 9.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...0 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR EXTREME WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LOW DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

JAMES