Severe Thunderstorm Warning 856, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
213 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
FOCUS TODAY IS ON THE SHORT TERM. DRYLINE CONTINUES A SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION...NOW ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
W OK AND NORTH TX. EXPECT TSTM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WARM AIR CAP ERODES. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED
INITIALLY...BUT HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA AFTER 00Z AS A LINE OF STORMS MAY FORM ALONG A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. POPS FOR THU AM WERE REMOVED WITH
INITIALIZATION AND SEE NO REASON TO PUT THEM BACK WITH THE PRECIP
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CWA BY 12Z THU.

FOLLOWING THIS...EXPECT TRANQUIL WEATHER FROM THU THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
REGARDING THE UPPER LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS HAS COME BACK INTO
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF WITH AN INTENSE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING THE AREA. SINCE PREV EXTENDED FCST WAS BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND HIGH TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN COOLED FROM THE GFS
NUMBERS...LEFT THE EXTENDED ALONE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  66  39  63 /  60   0   0   0
HOBART OK         46  67  37  66 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  70  39  69 /  20   0  10   0
GAGE OK           39  63  30  64 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     46  65  39  59 /  90   0  10  10
DURANT OK         57  69  42  71 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-005-009-
     010-014>016-021-022-033>035.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-005-
     009>011-014-015-021.

TX...NONE.
&&

23/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1140 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1140 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK INCLUDES THE AREA EAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD TO
DUNCAN...AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM DUNCAN TO SEMINOLE. THIS INCLUDES
ENID...OKLAHOMA CITY...AND STILLWATER.

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES THE REST OF THE AREA LOCATED EAST OF A
LINE FROM ALVA TO WEATHERFORD...GRANDFIELD...AND ARCHER CITY. THE
SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES WICHITA FALLS...LAWTON...AND ARDMORE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
2 PM THROUGH 11 PM.

IMPACTS...
TORNADOES.

LARGE HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
AUTOMOBILES...VEGETATION...AND THE ROOFTOPS AND WINDOWS OF
STRUCTURES.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 65 TO 70 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD PLAN
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...LASTING UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING IN SOME EASTERN LOCATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG LIFT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST TO
FIND A VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR AND
JUST AHEAD OF A DRYLINE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT HAIL. STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL YIELD FAST MOVING STORMS...SOME MOVING FASTER THAN
45 MPH...AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS. IN ADDITION...TORNADO POTENTIAL IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN
TODAY. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD...THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA...BUT STORMS IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA MAY BE EQUALLY SEVERE...AND CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

BY EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORM EVENT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION...AS
SUPERCELLS BECOME LESS LIKELY...AND A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS ALONG A
COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE
MAY ALSO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT BRINGS COOLER...STABLE AIR INTO THE REGION.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST THURSDAY NOV 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON. A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

WILDFIRES ARE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BEHIND
THE DRYLINE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL STORM.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

EXPECT UNSCHEDULED UPDATES TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AT
7 AM THURSDAY.

BURKE

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