Severe Thunderstorm Warning 829, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1003 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO BUBBLE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...
BUT HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO PERSIST. ELEVATED ECHOES ARE NOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN
WHAT SHOULD BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHOW THIS EVENING. THE WARM
ADVECTION ON THE 850 MB PLANE OR THE PROGGED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE POINT MORE
TOWARD NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. AT THIS
TIME... THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THIS
SCENARIO. WILL NOT UPDATE THE FORECAST THIS EVENING... BUT WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THE ATTEMPTED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO MAKE
SURE POPS DO NOT NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008/

DISCUSSION...
WAVY FRONT ACROSS TX PANHANDLE INTO OK WILL BE A MAIN PLAYER NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AS IT DRIFTS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA. INITIAL
CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED STORMS ON OR NEAR THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SBCAPE NEAR OR OVER 2000 J/KG IN CENTRAL
OK WITH 0-6KM SHEAR RUNNING 30-50KT. CU FIELD INCREASING FROM
CENTRAL OK INTO OUR TX ZONES. SATELLITE AND MORNING UA ANALYSES
INDICATE AN IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE CENTRAL/NCENTRAL OK WHERE A COUPLE HIGH-PROFILE
OUTDOOR EVENTS WILL BE OCCURRING. LATER TONIGHT... STRENGTHENING
LLJ N OF SFC BOUNDARY LIKELY TO LEAD TO NOCTURNAL ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAINLY N OK. HAVE UPPED THE POPS TO ABOVE ALL MOS
GUIDANCE... WHICH HAS UNDERESTIMATED COVERAGE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS.
FRONT FORECAST TO DRIFT S TONIGHT AND THEN MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING N SUNDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO N ROCKIES. FRONT THEN FORECAST TO DROP S THROUGH THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER/DRIER AIR
MASS. LOW POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. BRISK N-NE WINDS AND DRIER AIR
LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME DECIDEDLY FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

AFTER SOME RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK... ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST AROUND THU. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PROGGED THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME WITH AN ATTENDANT
CHANCE OF PRECIP... FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS. HAVE RAISED
GFS-MOS POPS AND LOWERED THE HIGHS BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONT TO
BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING GRIDS. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  86  68  87 /  20  10  10  10
HOBART OK         65  91  69  88 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  94  70  91 /  10   0   0  10
GAGE OK           56  82  64  80 /  30  20  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     61  81  67  85 /  60  20  20  30
DURANT OK         64  89  68  88 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1217 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...
A COOL FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE FRONTAL ZONE... AND WILL
HELP THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS MORNING... MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY... INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED FROM
FRIDAY EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY THE CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LOW.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY SEP 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY... MAINTAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT
ANY GIVEN TIME. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG
INTERSTATE 40 UP TO THE KANSAS BORDER... WITH LOWER CHANCES TOWARD
THE RED RIVER. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME... ALTHOUGH AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
COOLER... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMOVE THE CHANCE FOR STORMS
MONDAY NIGHT... BUT MOISTURE AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SATURDAY.

.26.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1043 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

OKZ007-070400-
GRANT OK-
1043 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GRANT COUNTY.

TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR POND CREEK AND NEAR NASH
AT 1043 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES IS POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN GRANT COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1118 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

OKZ007-070430-
GRANT OK-
1118 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GRANT COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF NASH AT 1118 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY.