Severe Thunderstorm Warning 820, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS HAVE BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL OK
...ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OK...AND IN
SW OK/N TX WHERE PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS SPREAD IN ADVANCE OF
SYSTEM OVER NRN MEXICO. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. STORMS MAY BE MORE
LONG LIVED IN WESTERN OK OVERNIGHT WHERE A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET
MAY INTERACT WITH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOCUS MAY
SHIFT MORE TO SWRN PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR SATURDAY AS SURFACE
DRIFTS SWD. BREAK IN THE ACTION EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK UPR RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND NO SURFACE
BOUNDARY EVIDENT. FOCUS LATE IN THE WEEK THEN SHIFTS TO POSSIBLE
IMPACT OF GUSTAV ON THE AREA. MODEL DIFFER IN HANDLING REMNANTS OF
GUSTAV AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL. ECMWF BRINGS REMNANTS FURTHER WEST
THAN THE GFS AND THIS TRACK WOULD HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON THE
CWA...ESP THE ERN HALF. FOR NOW WILL NOW WILL GO WITH MORE OF A
COMPROMISE FCST WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL POINT TO HIGHER
POPS IN THE WED/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...ESP FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE
FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  93  71  92 /  30  20  10  10
HOBART OK         70  92  70  93 /  40  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  95  72  95 /  30  20  20  10
GAGE OK           64  90  65  90 /  40  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     69  90  70  90 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         71  94  71  92 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

26/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
105 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
105 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FRIDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS IN KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING ALSO CREATED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY... SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS...AND SMALL HAIL. WITH MINIMAL WIND SHEAR...
ANY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT-LIVED. THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE MID TO
LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY AUG 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE... HOWEVER MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...EITHER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST...OR A TROPICAL SYSTEM BRUSHING THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SATURDAY.

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