Severe Thunderstorm Warning 792, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
326 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERCOLATE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS... AS IT
HAS ALL DAY TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CAUSING A FEW OF THE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN
EVENT WILL BE A SEPARATE GROUP OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP... MUCH LIKE LAST EVENING... FARTHER NORTHWEST... MOST
LIKELY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO OR WYOMING. AGAIN...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING THE COMPLEX SOUTHEAST INTO MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW... NOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA...
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO WYOMING OVERNIGHT... AND THE UTAH/COLORADO
AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS POSITION WILL MAKE RAIN FORECASTS
PROBLEMATIC FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AS THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
BE TOO FAR WEST TO PROVIDE MUCH SUPPORT... BUT THE PRESENCE OF AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SOME STORMS.

AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES... THE UPPER LOW CRAWLS SLOWLY EAST...
AND BEGINS TO PROVIDE BETTER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER... THE LOW WILL BE SLOWLY WEAKENING WITH
TIME... AND THIS WILL OFFSET THE INCREASED PROXIMITY SOMEWHAT. AS
A RESULT... RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RELATIVELY STEADY FROM SATURDAY
ALL THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH ALL THE EXPECTED RAIN WILL HOLD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  83  65  82 /  40  50  30  30
HOBART OK         69  84  67  83 /  50  40  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  88  69  85 /  30  40  50  40
GAGE OK           62  81  61  78 /  60  40  40  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  82  64  84 /  30  40  20  20
DURANT OK         71  83  68  82 /  10  60  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-151200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
610 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A SMALL PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY...TO
NORMAN...TO FREDERICK...TO CROWELL TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE STORM APPROACHES...WINDS
ALOFT WILL INCREASE...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW
FOR HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TO AFFECT THE REGION.

AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...A SMALLER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING...RESULTING
IN STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OKLAHOMA. THE STRENGTHENING WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN...BUT LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO WILL BE
CONCERNS.

THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER STORM
SYSTEM COULD APPROACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS THOSE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY AUG 15.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60  PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MENTIONED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PLAINS... AND WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE... BUT HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING WILL BE A GREATER CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THOSE WHO LIVE IN AND NEAR FLOOD-PRONE AREAS SHOULD REVIEW
PREPAREDNESS PLANS IN PREPARATION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN...AND SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE ACTION.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

CMS/11

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