Severe Thunderstorm Warning 774, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, FOR MID-JULY, HAS BEEN MODERATE THROUGH
THE DAY. MOST OF THE EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE ENDED IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL WAVE THROUGH
EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SURFACE HEATING
WILL LIKELY GENERATE SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
MORE SO IN THE CENTRAL THAN WESTERN OKLAHOMA DUE TO HIGHER CIN
VALUES THERE. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES
LIKELY THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK UPPER
WAVE THAT IS MOVING FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY SOMETIMES, BUT THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT FLOODING RISKS. THE IDEA OF A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN DISCUSSED. CONSIDERING THAT ONLY A FEW AREAS
OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE WET GROUND AND ALSO THAT THE MORE
UNIFORM AREA OF RAIN MAY BE SOUTH OF THERE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
WHERE TO LOCATE A WATCH EVEN IF QPF WERE TO SUPPORT IT.

LOW AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DECREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MID-
LEVEL FLOW AND RAIN-COOLED AIR IS EXPECTED TO HELP THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT BEFORE THE SUN RETURNS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL LAST INTO
MONDAY AFTER WHICH THE MORE DRY AIRMASS MOVES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MORE TYPICAL HUMID AIR MOVES NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH MID-WEEK. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING HOT
CONDITIONS UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY
APPROACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  87  63  93 /  60  20  10  10
HOBART OK         68  88  66  95 /  60  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  89  69  96 /  40  30  20  20
GAGE OK           58  87  57  92 /  50  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     63  88  58  91 /  60  10   0  10
DURANT OK         73  89  68  92 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S ALTUS               34.59N 99.33W
07/12/2008  M67 MPH          JACKSON            OK   MESONET

&&

TY/KB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

OKZ007-012-013-122345-
GARFIELD OK-NOBLE OK-GRANT OK-
633 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GARFIELD...GRANT AND NOBLE
COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DEER CREEK TO 6 MILES WEST OF KREMLIN AT 633 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT
21 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS DEVELOPING NEAR FAIRMONT.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

..SPEG.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND GST     ALTUS AIR FORCE BASE    34.66N 99.29W
07/12/2008  M64 MPH          JACKSON            OK   ASOS

&&

TY/KB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     TSTM WND GST     ALTUS AIR FORCE BASE    34.66N 99.29W
07/12/2008  M64 MPH          JACKSON            OK   ASOS

&&

TY/KB