Severe Thunderstorm Warning 758, NWS Norman, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-291300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE
TO FAIRVIEW TO MEDFORD...ALL THE WAY TO THE RED RIVER...AND ALSO
INCLUDES WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
THROUGH 1 AM.

IMPACTS...
LARGE HAIL MAINLY AROUND QUARTER SIZE...BUT LOCALLY UP TO GOLF BALL
SIZE...WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON.   CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LESS CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY
PREVENT SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING...BUT HIGHER
BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS BUT THE OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.  AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE OVERALL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE RISK AREA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY JUN 29.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER SUNDAY MORNING NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER...ENDING BY MIDDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
SUNDAY. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE PLAINS...DRIVING A
COLD FRONT TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER FOR A
FEW DAYS...UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT INTRODUCES A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT
7 AM...SUNDAY.

SIX

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