Severe Thunderstorm Warning 641, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WELL-DEFINED SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM OZARKS WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL OK - JUST N OF HERE - TO A MESOLOW BETWEEN LAW AND HBR...
THEN SW ACROSS W TX. INSTABILITY MAXIMIZED OVER CENTRAL/SCENTRAL
OK WITH SBCAPE AOA 3000 J/KG AS OF 18Z. CIN CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH... INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION TO
INITIATE AND INTENSIFY BY MID AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM VICINITY
MESOLOW EASTWARD. BOUNDARY CURRENTLY IS NEAR THE S EDGE OF THE
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR... WHICH ALONG WITH THE OBSERVED CAPE
VALUES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY
SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL SR HELICITY IS DECREASING SO THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL... ALTHOUGH
THERE STILL COULD BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY STRETCHING NEAR
THE SFC WINDSHIFT TO SUPPORT A COUPLE TORNADOES. TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE WITH ANY STORM THAT TRACKS E ALONG AND NEAR THE SFC
BOUNDARY AND CAN STILL TAP INTO THE MORE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION LIKELY TO SHIFT S WITH TIME THIS
EVENING... AND EVENTUALLY BUILD MORE TO THE SW TOWARD/INTO OUR SW
ZONES.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. SIGNALS ARE THERE TO SUPPORT A FAIRLY ROBUST FORWARD-
PROPAGATING MCS MOVING SE ACROSS SOME PART OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT.
SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE S TO NEAR RED RIVER - OR MORE LIKELY INTO
N TX - BY SAT MORNING... AIDED BY OUTFLOW OVERNIGHT. FRONT FORECAST
TO BEGIN LIFTING NE TOWARD OK LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT... OR AT LEAST
TRY TO. NAM HAS BEEN QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND AN MCS SIGNAL...
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT... BUT GFS SHOWS LESS ORGANIZATION AND ECMWF
HAS HARDLY ANYTHING SAT NIGHT. GIVEN THE FORECAST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK CAP... AND FAVORABLE SHEAR BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LLJ AND THE WNW FLOW AT MID LEVELS... AM TENDING TO LEAN TOWARD THE
NAM SCENARIO. ITS QPF MAY BE A BIT MUCH... BUT IDEA OF A COMPLEX
FORMING OVER OK OR THE E TX PANHANDLE AND MOVING SE NEAR OR N OF A
PRE-EXISTING SFC BOUNDARY MAKES SENSE. THERE IS STILL THE
QUESTION OF IF... AND A BIGGER QUESTION OF WHERE... SO FOR NOW
WILL KEEP POPS LOW BUT PLACE A BROAD RELATIVE POP MAX OVER OUR SW.

THE SCENARIO SAT NIGHT APPEARS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT SEVERAL MORE TIMES
OVER THE ENSUING WEEK AS A NW FLOW PATTERN LOCKS IN. EXPECT
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLUSTERS/COMPLEXES TO FORM OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE SE. DETAILS REGARDING WHEN AND WHERE ARE
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE THIS FAR OUT. THE BIG PICTURE
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN/TSTORMS... WITH
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCES AT NIGHT AND OVER THE N/NE PARTS OF THE
AREA. E-SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODERATE NW MID/UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND EVENTUAL UPSCALE
ORGANIZATION WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE POTENTIAL... PRIMARILY WIND/HAIL.
CUMULATIVE RAINFALL POTENTIALLY COULD PLACE PARTS OF THE AREA BACK
INTO A FLOODING SITUATION BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  89  69  95 /  20  20  30  10
HOBART OK         67  93  69  97 /  20  20  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  93  71  99 /  20  20  30  10
GAGE OK           60  93  66  97 /  10  20  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     60  88  69  92 /  10  20  20  10
DURANT OK         70  90  70  95 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

22/24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
916 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

OKZ025-029-140230-
OKLAHOMA OK-CLEVELAND OK-
916 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLEVELAND AND OKLAHOMA
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF WILL ROGERS WORLD
AIRPORT AT 916 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
919 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     HAIL             8 SSE CROWELL           33.88N 99.67W
06/13/2008  E0.88 INCH       FOARD              TX   PUBLIC

&&

DW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
932 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

OKZ024>026-030-140300-
LINCOLN OK-CANADIAN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-POTTAWATOMIE OK-
932 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CANADIAN...LINCOLN...
OKLAHOMA AND POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES.

WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM WEST OF
YUKON TO NEAR DOWNTOWN OKLAHOMA CITY TO JONES AND NEAR MEEKER AT
AT 932 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 17 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

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